Democratic Poll Gives Gianforte Single-Digit Lead in Montana

Gianforte led Quist by six points in Senate Majority PAC survey

Democrat Rob Quist, right, is vying with Republican Greg Gianforte in the race for Montana’s at-large House seat. (Courtesy Greg for Montana, Rob Quist for Montana)
Democrat Rob Quist, right, is vying with Republican Greg Gianforte in the race for Montana’s at-large House seat. (Courtesy Greg for Montana, Rob Quist for Montana)
Posted May 7, 2017 at 10:21am

In the race for Montana’s at-large House seat, Republican Greg Gianforte led Democratic Rob Quist by six points in a poll conducted by a Democratic super PAC late last month. 

Gianforte led Quist 49 to 43 percent. That includes undecided voters pushed for a lean toward one candidate or the other. 

Senate Majority PAC surveyed 601 midterm election voters statewide from April 25 through 27. According to the May 5 polling memo from Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, 95 percent of respondents planned to vote in the May 25 special election. The memo did not include a margin of error.

Respondents reported voting for President Donald Trump 55 to 33 percent. (Trump carried the state by 21 points last fall.) Democrats are optimistic that even some of those Trump voters will be looking for a check on the president when casting their votes later this month. 

Democrats are hopeful that an energized base will boost their turnout numbers for the special election, with the polling memo pointing to an “enthusiasm gap.” Among the most two-thirds of the poll’s sample who reported being most motivated to vote, Gianforte’s lead narrowed to 48-47 percent.