ANALYSIS — Another week and we have another batch of race rating changes by Inside Elections, all in favor of Democrats. With just two weeks to go before the general election, Republicans are running out of time to change the trajectory of the midterms. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is mired in the high 30s, and the GOP is at risk of losing its majorities on Capitol Hill. The Senate battleground The Senate battleground continues to shift and evolve in Democrats’ favor. New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, shifts from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. That means Democrats don’t have any defensive seats in races rated a Toss-up or worse, making it easier for them to gain the four seats necessary for a majority. Ratings also shifted in four Republican states that were all rated Solid Republican at the beginning of the cycle. Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years and yet the race between GOP Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton is very competitive. That race moves from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican, one step away from Toss-up. Two appointed senators, Darline Graham of South Carolina and Ashley Moody of Florida, can’t take their races for granted. The Palmetto State shifts from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, while the Sunshine State moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Even though Democrats always seem to fall short in Texas, their nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, has maintained a very narrow advantage over Republican Ken Paxton, leading by a point or two for five months. Paxton, the state attorney general, could still win, but Talarico’s lead has been durable and undeniable. That race shifts from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, the same rating as the contests in Alaska, Maine and Ohio. Inside Elections’ current Senate projection is a Democratic gain of three to five seats, a range that spans the four needed for a majority. The House landscape Democratic prospects are better in the House, where the party needs a net gain of just three seats for the majority, with a much larger pool of opportunities compared with the Senate. Races for the more evenly divided districts at the center of the House battlefield have been stubbornly close despite Trump’s poor job approval rating. But Democrats’ list of potential takeovers has grown as GOP voters wrestle with disappointment over the lack of a promised economic rebound and contemplate which party to vote for or whether to vote at all. As I wrote recently, Republicans are having particular difficulty defending open seats. Without incumbents with established identities who might be able to withstand a political storm, the party is struggling to win several districts deep in GOP territory. Nearly half of Inside Elections’ recent House rating changes — 10 out of 22 races — involved GOP-held open seats, all in favor of Democrats. It’s not a surprise Republicans are struggling to hold Nebraska’s open 2nd District, where Kamala Harris finished ahead of Trump in 2024. But the most of the other nine changes are in districts that backed Trump by anywhere from 10 points to more than 20 points. The race ratings for Arizona’s 1st, Iowa’s 2nd, Kentucky’s 6th, Montana’s 1st, Nevada’s 2nd, New York’s 21st, North Carolina’s 11th, South Carolina’s 1st and even Wyoming’s at-large district all shifted toward Democrats. The open seat in Wyoming, held by Senate hopeful Harriet M. Hageman, is among four Republican new additions to the House battleground. It joins Arkansas’ 2nd District (represented by French Hill), Indiana’s 5th (Victoria Spartz) and Nebraska’s 1st (Mike Flood) in moving from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Meanwhile, two Democratic seats shifted in the other direction, with New Jersey’s 9th District (Nellie Pou) and New York’s 19th (Josh Riley) going from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. Two more GOP incumbents are now underdogs as the races for Pennsylvania’s 7th District (Ryan Mackenzie) and 8th (Rob Bresnahan Jr.) shift from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. And three Democratic incumbents who were targeted by Republicans for defeat through redistricting are still hanging on. Rating prospects improved for Shomari Figures (Alabama’s 2nd), Don Davis (North Carolina’s 1st) and Marcy Kaptur (Ohio’s 9th). Inside Elections currently projects a Democratic gain of 10 to 20 House seats, well above what the party needs for the majority. It’s possible Republicans will boost their turnout enough to avert disaster and win a few dozen races by uncomfortably close margins. But it’s also possible such a turnout won’t materialize and Republicans will end up losing dozens of races by narrow margins in a historic blowout. Elections for governor Two states have joined the gubernatorial battleground, with the reelection efforts of Govs. Jim Pillen of Nebraska and Phil Scott of Vermont now looking less of a sure thing. Those races move from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. In Texas, GOP Gov. Greg Abbott remains favored to win a record fourth term, but Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa has proved to be his toughest challenger yet. The race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Here’s the full list of the latest Inside Elections rating changes: Senate races moving toward Democrats Florida Senate (Ashley Moody, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican Kansas Senate (Roger Marshall, R): from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican New Hampshire Senate (Open; Jeanne Shaheen, D): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic South Carolina Senate (Darline Graham, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican Texas Senate (Open; John Cornyn, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up House races moving toward Democrats Alabama’s 2nd District (Shomari Figures, D): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican Arizona’s 1st District (Open; David Schweikert, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic Arkansas’ 2nd District (French Hill, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican Indiana’s 5th District (Victoria Spartz, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican Iowa’s 2nd District (Open; Ashley Hinson, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up Kentucky’s 6th District (Open; Andy Barr, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican Maine’s 2nd District (Open; Jared Golden, D): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican Montana’s 1st District (Open; Ryan Zinke, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican Nebraska’s 1st District (Mike Flood, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican Nebraska’s 2nd District (Open; Don Bacon, R): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic Nevada’s 2nd District (Open; Mark Amodei, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican New Jersey’s 9th District (Nellie Pou, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic New York’s 19th District (Josh Riley, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic New York’s 21st District (Open; Elise Stefanik, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican North Carolina’s 1st District (Don Davis, D): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up North Carolina’s 11th District (Open; Chuck Edwards, R): from Lean Republican to Toss-up Ohio’s 9th District (Marcy Kaptur, D): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up Pennsylvania’s 7th District (Ryan Mackenzie, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic Pennsylvania’s 8th District (Rob Bresnahan Jr., R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic South Carolina’s 1st District (Open; Nancy Mace, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican Texas’ 15th District (Monica De La Cruz, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up Wyoming’s At-Large District (Open; Harriet M. Hageman, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican Gubernatorial races moving toward Democrats Nebraska Governor (Jim Pillen, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican Vermont Governor (Phil Scott, R): from Solid Republican to Likely Republican Texas Governor (Greg Abbott, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
