Just six months ago, the prospect of winning the Senate majority seemed far outside of Democrats’ grasp. The party was coming off steep 2024 losses, and the path to netting the four seats needed to win control of the chamber wound through several deeply Republican states. But Democrats now say their midterm picture is brightening. While the map continues to favor the GOP, Democratic strategists point to signs that suggest Republican incumbents, even those in states that Donald Trump carried in 2024, face fresh vulnerabilities. They include the president’s record-low job approval rating, an unpopular war, spiking gas prices, Democratic overperformance in recent special elections, and historical trends that typically provide an advantage to the party out of power. Then there are “vibes,” that hard-to-quantify blend of momentum, mood and luck that Democrats say are working to their benefit this year. Still, it won’t be easy: Republicans have signaled a looming onslaught of big spending to protect their vulnerable incumbents in Maine, Ohio and Alaska; go on the attack in Georgia; and try to win open seats in Michigan, North Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire. Less than six months out from Election Day, our list of the most vulnerable senators includes red-state GOP senators, a Republican from a state that Kamala Harris won and a purple-state Democrat. Several incumbents whose seats aren’t expected to flip also make our list because they face primary threats. CQ Roll Call’s rankings are based on extensive conversations with campaign insiders, party officials and independent election analysts, as well as a review of the candidates’ fundraising reports and race ratings by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. Our most vulnerable senators list typically focuses on the 10 most endangered members of the chamber, but our latest tally features just seven incumbents. That’s still one more than six months ago, with Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska making his debut after drawing a battle-tested Democratic challenger this year. Because our list focuses on incumbents, it doesn’t take into account open-seat races, whose outcomes will also determine the balance of power in the Senate. Three Democratic incumbents from competitive states — Michigan’s Gary Peters, New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen and Minnesota’s Tina Smith — as well as Republicans Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Joni Ernst of Iowa all announced their retirements, leaving behind competitive seats. Cassidy has built a reputation as a pragmatic Republican who regularly delivers for his state. But he drew a powerful enemy when he voted to convict Trump at his post-Jan. 6 impeachment trial in 2021. “Hopefully all of the Great Republican People of Louisiana, which I won, BIG, three times, will be voting Bill Cassidy OUT OF OFFICE in the upcoming Republican Primary!” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform in late April. The president recruited Rep. Julia Letlow to primary Cassidy, and state Treasurer John Fleming is also in the race. Two of the candidates will advance to a June runoff if no one gets a majority in Saturday’s first round. Cassidy, a physician, has also drawn the wrath of the Make America Healthy Again movement for his longtime advocacy for vaccines and his questioning of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vaccine policy, though he did provide key support for Kennedy’s nomination last year. Public polling suggests Cassidy may struggle to make the runoff, and there’s concern that the governor's decision to postpone House primaries following the Supreme Court ruling on the state’s congressional map could depress turnout in the Senate contest. Collins is set for a fall face-off against oyster farmer Graham Platner, who became the presumptive Democratic nominee last month after Gov. Janet Mills ended her Senate bid. Collins, who chairs the powerful Appropriations Committee, is seeking a sixth term in a Democratic-leaning state under a challenging midterm environment for the GOP. But Platner, a military veteran and political newcomer who has demonstrated strong grassroots support, has significant baggage, including from past Reddit comments blaming women for sexual assault and a now covered-up tattoo of a Nazi symbol. Collins’ allies are set to highlight those vulnerabilities in a way the Mills campaign did not, with a pro-Collins super PAC already on air attacking him. Collins began the second quarter with a significant cash-on-hand advantage over Platner, who’s so far been a strong fundraiser but with a high burn rate. As the only Democrat on this list from a state that Trump won in 2024, Ossoff continues to be a top target for the GOP. But deep divisions among Republicans and Ossoff’s towering fundraising advantage have fueled Democrats’ confidence that he can withstand an onslaught of GOP attacks. The main contenders in next week’s Republican primary are Reps. Earl L. “Buddy” Carter and Mike Collins; as well as former football coach Derek Dooley, a first-time candidate who has the backing of the state’s popular governor, Brian Kemp. Ossoff’s campaign reported $32 million banked as of March 31, while none of the Republican contenders had more than $3.75 million in their campaign coffers. It may be a while before Ossoff learns who his Republican opponent will be — the GOP primary will head to a June runoff if no one takes a majority next week. Cornyn is fighting for his political future against pugnacious state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a May 26 primary runoff. The battle is among the cycle’s nastiest, with Cornyn running ads accusing his opponent of financial impropriety, ethical lapses and moral failings. Cornyn finished ahead of Paxton in the March primary — barely — but failed to clear the 50 percent threshold, necessitating the runoff. Waiting in the wings for whoever emerges as the Republican nominee: Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who raised $27 million in the first three months of the year. Over the same span, Cornyn’s campaign announced a haul of “nearly $9 million” across his various fundraising committees, with more than $8 million on hand collectively. Paxton reported raising $1.7 million over the first three months of the year and ended March with $2.1 million in the bank. Ohio has become increasingly inhospitable to Democrats in recent years, which helps explain why longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown lost to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024. Brown, though, is hoping for a comeback this year: He’s challenging Husted, the state’s former lieutenant governor and secretary of state who was appointed to succeed Republican JD Vance after he resigned to become vice president. Though Husted has a handful of statewide wins under his belt, he remains largely unknown to many Buckeye State voters. Despite their recent struggles in the state, Democrats are counting on Brown’s populist message to lift him in a year when economic concerns are dominant. The race is likely to be bitter and expensive: Brown’s campaign committee had $17 million on hand on April 15 compared with $8.2 million for Husted. On paper, Sullivan’s seat in reliably red Alaska should be well out of Democrats’ reach. But the party landed a prize recruit in former Rep. Mary Peltola, a moderate who lost her at-large House seat by less than 3 points in 2024, even as Trump carried the state by 13 points. The first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, Peltola has proved to be a prolific fundraiser, bringing in $8.7 million to Sullivan’s $1.7 million in the first three months of the year, though the senator entered April with more cash on hand. Ousting Sullivan is no sure thing: Alaska Democrats have won one Senate election in the past five decades, and that was against a Republican who had been convicted on corruption charges. Super PACs affiliated with both parties plan to spend big in Alaska, with Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund pledging $15 million and Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC committing $10 million. Six years ago, Markey faced a primary challenge from a scion of the Bay State's most storied political dynasty, and he wound up winning by 11 points. This time, instead of battling a Kennedy, Markey, 79, is being challenged by Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, who has framed the race as a generational battle for the future of the party. Markey has strong ties to Massachusetts progressives, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna S. Pressley. A recent Emerson College survey found Markey leading Moulton by 5 points, with almost 30 percent of voters undecided. Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary would be heavily favored in the general election. Republicans have won just one Senate election in Massachusetts in the past half century. The winner of that 2010 election, Scott P. Brown, is running for Senate in New Hampshire this cycle.
