Aug. 22, 2014 SIGN IN | REGISTER

Rothenberg Archive

Not Your Typical Southern Democrat in South Carolina

Republican Sen. Lindsey Grahamís Democratic opponent, state Sen. Brad Hutto, wants you to know two things: He has a path to victory against the two-term Republican, and it doesnít require him to run from traditional Democratic positions.

President George W. Obama Meets the Midterms

I certainly didnít know foreign policy would be front and center in the final months before the midterm elections when I wrote in late April that these issues ďcould have an indirect yet significant impact on the midterm elections.Ē

'Simple' Doesn’t Equal 'Easy' in N.H. Senate Race

Having written about House and Senate races for the past 30 years, Iíve seen plenty of press releases, polling memos and campaign strategy emails. But rarely have I received anything as silly as a July 9 press release from New Hampshire Republican Senate hopeful Scott P. Brownís campaign, which presented the challengerís alleged ďPath To Victory.Ē

Fight for the Senate Still Very Much Up in the Air

The bottom line looks about the same in the fight for control of the Senate in November ó but some of the pieces of the puzzle have moved around dramatically over the past few months.

Could Upbeat Economic News Help Obama, Democrats?

Last weekís news that the U.S. economy gained 288,000 jobs in June seems to confirm the upbeat economic assessments coming from many of the nationís economists and Wall Street analysts.

Beware 'Anti-Incumbent' Election Hysteria

The defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia is sure to lead to another round of speculation that the 2014 midterms might not produce a partisan-wave election, but rather one where large numbers of incumbents from both parties are sent packing by voters.

Thad Cochran’s Mississippi

CLEVELAND, Miss. ó The rain pounded the Mississippi Delta for the better part of three days late last week, but the nasty weather and a hard-fought primary contest didnít stop Sen. Thad Cochran from attending the Delta Councilís annual event on May 30 on the Delta State University campus. The council is an economic development organization, started in 1935, that includes eighteen Delta and part-Delta counties in the state.

The Long Lost Tale of Phil Maloof

Most readers know that Nathan Gonzales and I, along with our friends from Roll Call, interview at least 150 candidates for Congress every election cycle. I have been doing it for many years.

Ben Sasse, Mystery Man

I am not at all certain who or what Ben Sasse is. I interviewed him in February, and heard him speak to a large, sympathetic group not long after that. And, of course, Iíve seen him interviewed by others. But I still donít have a handle on what kind of senator he will be.

The New World of Election Coverage and Analysis: A Case Study

My new statistical model of the open Wisconsin Senate seat suggests that Democrats now have only a 54.496 percent chance of holding the seat. Thatís a dramatic change from just three weeks ago, when my model showed them with a 55.501 percent chance.

And the Winner of the GOP’s Civil War Primary Is ...

Who is winning the primary campaign war within the GOP between pragmatic conservatives and the anti-establishment wing of the party?

Warning: Senate Races Aren't as Close as They Appear

Iíve noticed with some alarm how many people fail to make reasonable distinctions among races that admittedly have some factors in common.

Rothenberg: Obama's Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections -- Really

No, I am not going to try to make the case that foreign policy will be at the forefront of this yearís elections, or that international issues are a high priority for most Americans. They arenít.

Obama's Foreign Policy Impacts 2014 Elections — Really

No, I am not going to try to make the case that foreign policy will be at the forefront of this yearís elections, or that international issues are a high priority for most Americans. They arenít.

How to Handicap a Campaign's Ground Game in 2014

This cycle, Democrats are counting heavily on registering new voters and turning out registered voters who otherwise donít bother to vote during midterm elections. Republicans are also putting more emphasis on voter contact programs.

Meet 3 Divergent House Candidates Worth Watching

While some observers of politics apparently are only interested in statistical models that predict electoral outcomes, I have always thought that candidates matter ó both during campaigns and, particularly, when the victorious arrive in Washington, D.C.

Senator Thad Cochran, Underdog?

Forget about Matt Bevinís challenge to Sen. Mitch McConnell in the Kentucky Republican primary or Milton Wolfís bid to knock off Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts in that stateís GOP contest. The Senate primary to watch is Mississippiís.

Democrats' Growing Problems With Independent Voters on the Senate Map

While the nationís (and news mediaís) focus on Malaysian Airlines flight 370 gave Democrats a couple of weeks to catch their collective breath, the 2014 election cycle continues to look increasingly dangerous for President Barack Obama and his party.

Another Cycle, Another Poll Memo About Florida’s 2nd District

Democratic memos about the partyís optimistic prospects in Floridaís 2nd district never die. They simply fade away until the next election cycle, when a new one miraculously surfaces.

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