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Defense policy analysis, commentary and discussion.When Democrats float the idea of a Republican senator joining President Barack Obama’s Cabinet, it usually means they know they can’t defeat the incumbent in an election.
It has been a bad couple of weeks for my people.
Massachusetts Republican Richard Tisei married his longtime partner earlier this month in the aftermath of losing one of the closest congressional races in the country — and probably just a few months before he begins another House campaign.
The recent entry of Michelle Nunn into the Georgia Senate race is good news for national and state Democrats who hope to swipe a normally Republican Senate seat in the Deep South.
Ten years ago, the open-seat race in Maine’s 2nd District was one of the most competitive in the country. The seat is open again, but it may be further out of reach for Republicans this time.
Former Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., is going to put a Democratic gerrymander to the test.
For decades, Portland, Maine, the state’s largest city (population 66,000), has been more liberal and more Democratic than the rest of the Pine Tree State. But it wasn’t always the magnet for foodies or the home of upscale boutiques that attract a more affluent crowd.
As a political analyst, it’s easy to criticize candidates for not raising enough money. But it’s also easy to forget how hard it is to raise money. And it’s no wonder that most potential candidates pause before taking the plunge into a congressional race because of the burden of fundraising.
The two House campaign chiefs faced off on MSNBC’s “The Daily Rundown” this morning. But how close was their analysis of the House playing field to reality?
Since Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., announced he would not seek re-election in late April, we have rated the Montana Senate race as a Pure Tossup — a reflection of our uncertainty about the Democratic candidacy of former Gov. Brian Schweitzer.
There are many wide-open spaces but few competitive races in the Rocky Mountain West. Even though the important contests are few, they could be good indicators of which party has the upper hand next fall.
Even in good Republican years, the West has proved to be something of a Democratic firewall. But in 2014, Republicans will likely need to win a big Senate race in Alaska to have any chance of flipping the chamber. And if the GOP were to suffer a three- or four-seat loss in California House seats, it might well put its control of the U.S. House in jeopardy.
The battle for the Southwest boils down to two states: Arizona and Texas. And unless Republicans redraw the congressional map in the Lone State State once again — highly unlikely — there are not many competitive races.
The Hawkeye State dominates the list of competitive races in the Plains. After the region hosted the high-profile North Dakota and Missouri Senate races in 2012, its trio of Senate races this cycle are likely to see action in the primaries — but not in November.
This cycle, the South is dominated by competitive Senate races. That doesn’t mean there won’t be critical House races (including Florida’s 18th and 26th districts) or other interesting contests (such as the crowded Republican primary in Georgia).
State Sen. Larry Rhoden’s formal entry today into the South Dakota GOP Senate race doesn’t fundamentally change the Republican contest. Former Gov. Mike Rounds remains the party’s favorite for the nomination and for the general election.
The Midwest has traditionally been the land of the House races. But the open Senate seat in Michigan is unlikely to become very competitive, and Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., is closer to making his race a laughingstock than Republicans are to defeating him.
Democratic Rep. Michael H. Michaud’s decision to explore a gubernatorial bid in Maine is a good example of competing interests of campaign committees.
It’s not very often that the party out of power encourages the incumbent to seek re-election, but that’s the case in Pennsylvania.
In the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the Defense of Marriage Act, gay candidates and their spouses could face different campaign finance guidelines depending on their state.
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