By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Feb. 2, 2012, Midnight
The conventional wisdom now is that, even with the Republican nomination slipping further and further away, former Speaker Newt Gingrich will fight tooth and nail all the way to Tampa, making life miserable for the party’s likely nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Jan. 31, 2012, Midnight
Events drive public sentiment, which then shows up in polling. Then, people who either want to make a splash or more often simply want to drive home partisan talking points use the numbers to proclaim a fundamental shift in public opinion and political reality, regardless of whether there is one.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Jan. 26, 2012, Midnight
As Republican insiders of various ideological bent watch the presidential nominating process with increasing alarm, there is more than a whiff of talk about a white knight who could rescue his party from defeat by jumping into the presidential race late and riding away with the GOP nomination.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Jan. 24, 2012, Midnight
In 1964, an angry Republican Party nominated conservative Barry Goldwater for president. Eight years later, Democrats rallied behind George McGovern, an unapologetic liberal. In each case, the parties embraced what they thought were truth-tellers who reflected their core values. And, of course, both candidates lost badly.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Jan. 19, 2012, Midnight
Contrary to what you see on television and cable news, there are other elections besides the presidential race this year. And for those who care about control of Congress, the picture there is starting to come into better focus.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Jan. 17, 2012, Midnight
The combination of Mitt Romney’s 16-point victory in New Hampshire and his rousing election night speech launched the former Massachusetts governor toward South Carolina with the kind of old-fashioned momentum that any candidate for high office would love.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Jan. 9, 2012, Midnight
Welcome aboard the weird electoral expectations train. Next stop: New Hampshire. The state should be excellent territory for Mitt Romney, though his initial huge lead had to narrow after Rick Santorum’s Iowa showing, the media’s attention to Santorum’s candidacy and the hits that Romney took from his adversaries.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Jan. 2, 2012, 2:45 p.m.
It’s clear that expectations in Iowa have changed recently, both for the media and for Mitt Romney’s campaign.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Dec. 20, 2011, Midnight
Each year I try to give my own awards for the best and the worst, the silliest and the oddest. There were plenty of strange developments this year — heck, the entire Republican race for president has bordered on the bizarre — so there is more than enough material.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Dec. 15, 2011, Midnight
Mitt Romney’s ceiling in Iowa doesn’t look like glass. It looks like reinforced concrete. Even after three conservative candidates rose and fell in polling in Iowa, the former Massachusetts governor still can’t get above the 25 percent mark in the crucial early caucus state.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Dec. 13, 2011, Midnight
“Regrets, I’ve had a few,” Frank Sinatra sings in one of his signature songs, “My Way,” and that should be a sentiment that every political analyst, handicapper and forecaster feels as he or she looks back on a body of work from the previous 12 months.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Dec. 8, 2011, Midnight
It’s hard to say exactly when the Occupy Wall Street movement fizzled, but so far it has failed to become the politically potent force that the tea party was during the 2010 election cycle. But even if the Occupy movement has not yet broadened its appeal, it could still be a factor in 2012.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Dec. 6, 2011, Midnight
With 11 months to go until the 2012 elections, the fight for control of the Senate already seems to boil down to a dozen states. If, as many believe, we have entered a new era of voting in which the top of the ticket defines downballot choices for most voters, six of those 12 contests start to take on a more partisan tinge.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Dec. 1, 2011, Midnight
Two polls conducted by reputable Democratic pollsters show Republican Rep. Rick Berg to be in serious trouble in the North Dakota Senate race, especially now that former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) has entered the race.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Nov. 29, 2011, Midnight
Republicans are now chewing over their party’s potential presidential nominee for 2012, and a dramatic division has become apparent between GOP insiders and the grass roots. But it’s not primarily a difference of ideology, though there is an element of that. Instead, the split centers on electability.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Nov. 17, 2011, Midnight
Presidential debates, says NBC News Political Director and Chief White House Correspondent Chuck Todd, are now part of the winnowing process. Instead of going to a small state and wooing caucus-goers, Republican presidential hopefuls are going on national cable to see if they can resonate with the voters.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Nov. 15, 2011, Midnight
Mitt Romney continues to appeal to about one-quarter of the Republican Party, with the other three-quarters still looking for another option. The alternative du jour for conservatives is former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.).
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Nov. 10, 2011, Midnight
Redistricting is always messy and partisan. But this redistricting cycle, which won’t be finished until sometime next year, is particularly ugly and hypocritical.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Nov. 8, 2011, Midnight
If, as many Republicans hope and most GOP political operatives seem to expect, Virginia Republicans win enough seats tonight to take control of the state’s Senate, you will hear another round of talk about Gov. Bob McDonnell as a potential running mate for the Republican nominee in 2012.
By
Stuart Rothenberg
| Nov. 3, 2011, Midnight
Three and a half years ago, I wrote a column with a similar title after former Rep. Geraldine Ferraro (D-N.Y.), a supporter of presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton, asserted that Barack Obama wouldn’t be where he was in the Democratic race if he wasn’t black.
