Democrats’ narrow victory in Tuesday’s redistricting referendum in Virginia gives the party up to four pickup opportunities in the commonwealth in this year’s midterm elections. But it also puts both parties near parity in the monthslong arms race over redrawing congressional lines that has been a defining storyline of the 2026 campaign. With more than 95 percent of votes counted Wednesday, the pro-redistricting “yes” side was ahead 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent in the special election that saw voters approve a new map that would favor Democrats in 10 of Virginia’s 11 House districts. Democrats currently hold six House seats to Republicans’ five. “Last night was a big victory for the people of Virginia, a big victory for the people of America, and a big victory for democracy,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said at a Wednesday news conference off Capitol Hill. “Donald Trump and Republicans launched this gerrymandering war, and we’ve made clear as Democrats that we're going to finish it on behalf of the American people.” Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales shifted its race ratings for four GOP-held districts in Virginia following the referendum: The 1st District, held by Rob Wittman, shifts from Lean Republican to Solid Democratic. The 2nd, held by Jen Kiggans, shifts from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. The 5th, held by John McGuire, shifts from Solid Republican to Solid Democratic. The 6th, held by Ben Cline, shifts from Solid Republican to Lean Democratic. Nevertheless, Republicans said they’ll fight for the redrawn Virginia seats. “These are not slam dunk districts for them,” James Blair, who leads Trump’s political operation, said Wednesday on CNN, while Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters at the Capitol that Republicans were "going to fight tooth and nail for every one of those seats.” Kiggans, who is expected to face a rematch of her 2022 race against Democratic former Rep. Elaine Luria in the Hampton Roads-based 2nd District, said “the fight is far from over.” “My mission remains to hold leaders accountable, to serve the people who elected me, and to once again win the vote in Virginia’s Second Congressional District this November, delivering the commonsense, balanced representation our Commonwealth deserves,” she said in a statement. Similarly, Wittman said in a statement that he planned to seek reelection as Republicans also look to the Supreme Court of Virginia, which is still poised to weigh in on multiple challenges to the referendum. “I have complete confidence that this amendment will be struck down by the courts because it is unconstitutional,” he said. “The final word on this issue is far from settled.” Democratic freshman Eugene Vindman, who currently represents the 7th District, has said he would run in the new 1st District, which would include most of his current constituents. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, who had been challenging Wittman, has said she would run for the redrawn 5th District. Meanwhile, Democratic former Rep. Tom Perriello, who launched a campaign against McGuire in the 5th District, is set to shift to the new 6th District, which would now include his home. The newly drawn 7th District, which becomes an open safe Democratic seat, has already drawn a crowded Democratic primary, including former Virginia first lady Dorothy McAuliffe, Del. Dan Helmer and former Mike Pence aide Olivia Troye, among others. The 9th District would be the commonwealth’s sole safe Republican seat under the new map. It includes much of Rep. Morgan Griffith’s current district, but he could be challenged by another Republican member of the delegation. The Virginia redistricting campaign drew more than $80 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact, which tracks political spending. House Majority Forward, the nonprofit arm of a super PAC tied to House Democratic leadership, invested nearly $40 million in the lead-up to the referendum, a sign of how critical the group considered a new Virginia map to the fight for the House majority. “We are in an era of maximum warfare. Everywhere, all the time,” Jeffries said at his Wednesday news conference. Both parties have been engaged in redistricting efforts across the country since last summer, when, at President Donald Trump’s urging, Republicans in the Texas Legislature redrew the state’s map to give their party up to five new pickup opportunities. Republican state legislators in Missouri and North Carolina followed suit with new maps that give the GOP a chance to flip an additional seat in each state. Democrats countered in California, where voters last November approved a new map that could result in five new Democratic-held seats. Utah and Ohio will also have new lines for the midterms, with Democrats poised to pick up a seat in the Beehive State, while Republicans have a chance to flip up to two in Ohio. The GOP-controlled Florida Legislature is poised to meet for a special session next week, in which redistricting is on the agenda. It’s not yet clear, though, how legislators will approach a new map. While Republicans are under pressure to try to extract as many seats as possible, some party lawmakers have expressed caution about a more aggressive gerrymander, which could put GOP-held seats in jeopardy. The Supreme Court is also expected to weigh in before the end of June on a case challenging the Voting Rights Act, which, if the justices overturn Section 2, could lead to additional redistricting efforts in several Southern states that could benefit Republicans. Still, it’s unclear whether that ruling could come in time to affect this year’s midterm elections, with the primary season already underway. Valerie Yurk contributed to this report.
