Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. By Daniela Altimari and Mary Ellen McIntire A new poll of one of the most consequential Senate races on the midterm map found Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff with a 9-point lead over Republican Rep. Mike Collins. Ossoff is the Senate’s most vulnerable Democrat and holding the seat is seen as pivotal to his party’s chances of flipping the chamber. President Donald Trump traveled to the state Wednesday for what the White House billed as an event on the economy, but he used the appearance mainly to slam Ossoff, our colleague John T. Bennett reported. The July 13-16 AARP survey was conducted by the bipartisan outfit of Fabrizio Ward, which has served as chief pollster for Trump’s presidential campaigns, and Impact Research, which as ALG Research was Joe Biden’s chief pollster in 2020. It gave Ossoff a commanding 30-point lead among voters under 50 and a 5-point advantage among those 50 to 64. Voters over 65 preferred Collins by 24 points. Most concerning for Collins is the incumbent’s 20-point lead among unaffiliated voters in the purple state. One factor driving those numbers is a national trend that favors Democrats. “Both parties are narrowly underwater,’’ Matt Hogan of Impact Research said during a briefing on the survey Thursday morning. “It's especially negative on the Republican Party, [and] Trump's net job rating [is] now net negative by a 16-point margin.” Not surprisingly, affordability was cited as a chief worry by voters across the partisan spectrum. “Concerns about affordability are driving this election, especially among independents and Democrats, although it's still a top tier issue among Republicans,’’ said Bob Ward of Fabrizio Ward Opinion Research. “Among Republicans, concerns over immigration and border security top the list, with fiscal concerns like taxes next, which is virtually tied with worries over affordability and rising prices.” Among Georgia Democrats, threats to democracy were cited as the second-most important issue, behind the cost of living. The survey, part of a series of battleground polls by AARP, found a much tighter gubernatorial race, with Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms at 48 percent and Republican businessman Rick Jackson at 46 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. And just as in the Senate survey, Bottoms' support is largely driven by younger voters, while Jackson has a 13-point advantage among voters age 50 and older. Older voters remain a key swing demographic, said Vanessa Payne, AARP Georgia’s state director. “In Georgia's 2026 primary, voters age 50 and older accounted for 68 percent of all ballots cast. This underscores the critical role they play in deciding elections.’’ Starting gate Redistricted, again: Louisiana Democrat Cleo Fields won’t seek reelection this fall after his 6th District seat was redrawn earlier this year to favor Republicans. Instead, Fields said he would run for his old state Senate seat, which is open after his successor died earlier this month. This is the second time Fields is leaving the House after his seat was redrawn. He previously left the chamber in 1997 after court-ordered redistricting made his district essentially unwinnable for a Democrat. #MESEN: Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson is on track to clinch the Democratic nomination for Senate at a party convention Saturday after his top competitors dropped out of the race last weekend. New targets: The NRCC added seven more Democrat-held House seats to its target list for this fall. All seven districts were redrawn over the past year to be more favorable for Republicans. High stakes, short timeline: South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham has picked up several key endorsements since announcing she would run for a full term for her late brother’s seat. But the political newcomer, who entered the race at Trump’s urging, now faces a potentially fractious GOP battle for the seat that will play out on an abbreviated timeline. Among the candidates she’ll face in the Aug. 11 special election primary are Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman. He’s back: Former South Carolina Rep. and Gov. Mark Sanford has also jumped into the growing Republican special election primary for Senate. Sanford briefly ran for his old 1st District seat this year before dropping out to establish a nonprofit to address the national debt. Trump’s wins: The president had a good night in Arizona on Tuesday, with his endorsed candidates racking up victories in Republican primaries for governor and the House. And the matchup in a key House race is set with former state Rep. Amish Shah prevailing over a DCCC-backed rival in the Democratic primary for the battleground 1st District. He will next face Trump-backed former NFL kicker Jay Feely. RIP: Former Pennsylvania Rep. Tim Murphy, a champion for mental health issues who abruptly resigned his House seat in 2017 amid scandal, died Saturday from an apparent heart attack. He was 73. ICYMI Ad watch: One Nation, the nonprofit affiliated with GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, has launched a new national issue advocacy campaign highlighting Senate Republicans' work on behalf of veterans and active duty servicemembers. The ads are running in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio, with additional states to be announced. On the Democratic side, Senate Majority PAC has announced an additional $54 million in fall TV ad reservations to support Democrats running in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina. Endorsements: New Politics, which backs Democrats with military and community service records, has endorsed Arizona Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine veteran challenging vulnerable Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani. The New Democrat Coalition Action Fund, or New Dems, which backs center-left candidates, is supporting four Democrats seeking to flip GOP-held districts: Pia Dandiya and Leela Gray in Florida, Zach Dembo in Kentucky and Manny Rutinel in Colorado. #MISEN: 314 Action Fund, which supports Democrats with backgrounds in science and health care, has endorsed former public health official Abdul El-Sayed for Senate in Michigan. The group’s support of the vocal Israel critic is notable because it had previously accepted funding from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee but has since sought to distance itself from the outfit. Not making the ballot: Independent candidates Mayra Macias, a Democratic organizer, and Byron Sigcho-Lopez, a Chicago alderman, will not appear on the ballot for Illinois’ 4th District after the Illinois State Board of Elections ruled that neither had submitted the minimum number of valid signatures required. Macias and Sigcho-Lopez both entered the race as independents after Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia timed his retirement announcement to ensure his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, would be the only Democrat on the primary ballot. Redistricting redo: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore called for a special legislative session next month, formalizing a plan by state legislative leaders to meet to consider a constitutional amendment allowing for congressional redistricting to move forward. Guv roundup: The Wisconsin governor’s race was upended last week when Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez ended her campaign amid a campaign finance scandal and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley reentered the primary, quickly earning an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers. A new Marquette Law School poll conducted before these developments found 45 percent of Democratic voters undecided ahead of the Aug. 11 primary, with state Rep. Francesca Hong, a self-described democratic socialist, the leading candidate with 26 percent. In Michigan, former state Attorney General Mike Cox has dropped out of the GOP gubernatorial primary, citing Trump’s endorsement of Rep. John James. And in Kentucky, former state House Majority Leader Rocky Adkins will seek the 2027 Democratic nomination as he looks to succeed term-limited Gov. Andy Beshear. Nathan's notes Trump had been starting to see a bit of a reprieve in public polling in recent weeks, but many of the issues that drove his rating down in the first place are making their way back into the news, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales writes, and that’s not good news for Republicans. What we're reading Progressive FOMO: The Boston Globe spoke with ultraliberal Democrats in Massachusetts, who are looking at other states with envy wondering why a young, progressive insurgent isn’t running for Senate in the Bay State. What’s for dinner?: National Journal combed through last week’s Federal Election Commission reports to find out which lawmakers spent the most on dining and which Washington restaurants are most popular for both parties. Republican campaigns spent the most at the Capital Grille, while Democratic campaigns’ top restaurant was Osteria Morini. Not the same: Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar is the next House Democrat facing a challenge from a Democratic Socialists of America-backed challenger, but Axios reports that his colleagues aren’t as stressed about the race as they were about other primary races this year. Party over purpose: What is Blue MAGA? According to The New York Times, it’s a term for Democrats whose tribal loyalty to their party blinds them to its flaws. The newspaper spoke to several influencers and content creators who have used the phrase as an insult toward the Democratic establishment. The count: 192 That's how many current members of Congress – about 36 percent of the total membership – might be too old to serve, according to the respondents to a recent Fox News poll. According to the July 17-20 survey, 85 percent of registered voters thought there should be a mandatory retirement age for members of Congress. Of those, a plurality (31%) said that age should be somewhere between 65 and 69 years old. Another 19 percent thought it should be set even younger than 65. There are 192 current members of Congress who are at least 65 years of age. A slight majority of them (101) are Democrats, including two independent senators who caucus with them, and 91 are Republican. Of that total, 155 members (81 Democrats and 74 Republicans) are either actively running for reelection or hold Senate seats that aren't up this cycle. -- By Roll Call's Ryan Kelly Key race: #MI10 Candidates: Both parties have three-way primaries for Michigan’s open 10th District next month. On the Democratic side, former Commerce Department attorney Eric Chung, former prosecutor Christina Hines and former Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel are running. The Republican primary features Michael Bouchard, an Army veteran and the son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, attorney Justin Kirk and Army veteran Steffan Demetropoulos. (Former prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj dropped out of the GOP race earlier this month, but his name remains on the ballot.) Why it matters: Republican Rep. John James’ decision to run for governor has opened up this battleground district north of Detroit. Cash dash: Chung leads the field in fundraising, having raised $1.9 million through the end of June, when he had $1.1 million on hand. Greimel raised $1.2 million through June and had $505,000 available, while Hines raised $1.2 million and had $193,000 banked. Among Republicans, Bouchard hauled in $1.4 million through June and had $1.1 million available for the final primary stretch. Kirk raised $463,000 and had $253,000 on hand on June 30, while Demetropoulos raised less than $7,000 and entered July with less than $5,000 on hand. Candidates’ pre-primary reports are due at the Federal Election Commission by Thursday. The Honor, Duty & Discipline super PAC has spent $173,000 supporting Bouchard. Equality PAC has spent $140,000 supporting Chung, while Pro-Choice Majority Action has spent $250,000 to boost Hines’ campaign. Backers: Trump endorsed Bouchard, who was also added last week to the NRCC’s MAGA Majority program for strong GOP recruits. Among the Democrats, Hines is backed by EMILY’s List and End Citizens United and also won endorsements from the editorial boards of the Detroit Free Press and The Detroit News. Chung is backed by several House Democrats and Sens. Chris Coons of Delaware and Andy Kim of New Jersey. Greimel touts endorsements from several labor unions. What they’re saying: Hines has emphasized her background as a special victims prosecutor and being a working mom. Her campaign released a poll this week showing her leading the Democratic primary. Greimel has pointed to his union ties and said in a recent interview that he wants to bring down the cost of living. Chung has pointed to his family history as a child of Vietnamese immigrants and said he would focus on health care issues such as insurance coverage and lowering prescription drug prices. Bouchard, meanwhile, has leaned on his Army service and focused on issues such as election security and immigration. Terrain: The district includes parts of Macomb and Oakland Counties. Trump carried it by 6.5 points in 2024, while James won a second term by 6 points. Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Republican. Wild card: Hines also has the backing of Carl Marlinga, a former Macomb County circuit court judge who was the losing Democratic nominee to James in 2022 and 2024. Coming up The all-party special primary election to fill out the remaining term of the late Georgia Rep. David Scott takes place Tuesday. Six candidates, including Scott’s daughter Marcye Scott, are vying for the 13th District seat in suburban Atlanta. The race will head to an Aug. 25 runoff between the top two finishers if no one takes a majority of the vote. Also on Tuesday, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham will be honored with a ceremony in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda ahead of a funeral at Washington National Cathedral. A second funeral will be held in South Carolina the following day. Photo finish Virginia Rep. Suhas Subramanyam holds a poster of his late constituent, former Roll Call photo editor Doug Graham, after making a memorial speech on the House floor on Monday. Graham, who was also a LoudounNow photographer, died of cancer on July 12. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call) Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
