polling

Why It’s NOT the Economy, Stupid
With growth up, unemployment down, voters are focusing on other issues

National Republicans are hoping the strong economy will boost candidates like Jim Hagedorn, their nominee in Minnesota’s 1st District, seen here campaigning Sunday at the Applefest parade in La Crescent, Minn. However, public polling shows the economy is not at the top of voters’ concerns. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

ANALYSIS — Last week, the National Republican Congressional Committee released a web video entitled “Better Off Now.” According to NRCC communications director Matt Gorman, who was quoted in the accompanying press release, “November comes down to one question: Are Americans better off now than they were two years ago?” That might be what Republicans want, but it is not likely to be voters’ sole motivation as they cast their ballots. 

According to Gorman, voters will “keep Republicans in the majority.” The economy certainly is good, and there is no reason to believe that will change before November.

Kavanaugh’s Fate Lies in Women’s Hands — As It Should Be
Female voters will also be judging how Republicans treat him and his accuser

Responses by some male Republican lawmakers to the allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh show that many still don’t understand what it takes for a woman to come forward and tell her story, Murphy writes. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call)

OPINION — This was the point. This was always the point of the “Year of the Woman,” in 1992 and every election year since then. To have women at the table, to have women as a part of the process in the government we live by every day. Women still aren’t serving in Congress in the numbers they should be, but it is at moments like this one — with a nominee, an accusation, and a Supreme Court seat in the balance — where electing women to office matters.

When Anita Hill told an all-male panel of senators in 1991 that Clarence Thomas had repeatedly sexually harassed her when she had worked with him years before, the senators on the all-male Judiciary Committee seemed to put Hill on trial instead of Thomas. Why didn’t she quit her job and get another one, they asked. Why did she speak to him again? Why didn’t she come forward and say something about Thomas sooner if he was such a flawed nominee?

Rep. Scott Taylor Falling Behind Challenger After Ballot Forgery Scandal, Democratic Poll Shows
Democrat Elaine Luria is challenging freshman lawmaker in Virginia’s 2nd District

An internal poll for Democrat Elaine Luria showed her leading Rep. Scott Taylor in Virginia’s 2nd District amid lingering questions about Taylor’s role in a fraudulent ballot petition scandal. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Democrat Elaine Luria led Rep. Scott Taylor by 8 points in Virginia’s 2nd District amid lingering questions about the Republican lawmaker’s role in a ballot signature scandal, according to an internal poll released by Luria’s campaign Tuesday.

The survey, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, gave the Navy veteran a 51 percent to 43 percent lead over Taylor. A June survey by the same firm showed her trailing by 4 points, the campaign said.

Cramer Counters Health Care Attacks With New Ad
North Dakota Republican is on defense in Senate race over pre-existing conditions

Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., is challenging Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., in a high-profile Senate race. Here, the two attend an event with National Guardsmen in Bismarck, N.D., in August. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

North Dakota Rep. Kevin Cramer is taking to the airwaves to combat Democratic ads that spotlight the Republican Senate candidate’s health care positions.

The new Cramer ad features images of three Democratic spots — two of them from outside Democratic groups and one from Democratic incumbent Heidi Hetikamp’s campaign. Cramer has been calling on Heitkamp to take down her own campaign’s ad, saying she is citing inaccurate information about how his health care votes would have affected people with pre-existing conditions.

GOP Super PAC Continues Attacks on Maine’s Jared Golden
CLF has reserved $3.1 million in 2nd District to defend Poliquin

(Screenshot/Youtube/Congressional Leadership Fund)

A Republican super PAC tied to House leadership is launching its fourth ad against Maine Democrat Jared Golden on Friday.

The fight to hold on to the 2nd District, where GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin is running for a third term, is a top priority for Republicans. Congressional Leadership Fund has now reserved $3.1 million for the seat, among the most it’s reserved in competitive districts around the country. 

GOP Outside Money, Gerrymandering Worry DCCC Chairman
Rep. Ben Ray Luján still confident Democrats will win back the House

New Mexico Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Luján chairs the DCCC. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Luján expressed confidence Thursday his party will take control of the House, but he remains concerned about the impact of outside Republican money and gerrymandered districts.

“As far as what keeps me up at night, Republicans have committed what seems like unlimited amounts of money to these elections,” the New Mexico Democrat told reporters Thursday. “We’re seeing Super PAC after Super PAC on the Republican side continue to tear in.”

Willie Nelson to Headline Rally for Texas Senate Candidate Beto O’Rourke
It will be 85-year-old country music legend's first-ever performance at a free, rally-style event for a political candidate

Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke plays with country music legend Willie Nelson at a concert in July. (From @BetoORourke)

Willie Nelson may be getting up there in years, but there’s always time for firsts.

And for the first time ever, the 85-year-old country music star will take the stage to perform on behalf of a political candidate at a free-admission campaign rally.

Civil Rights Commission Calls for Action on Voting Rights Fix
State actions since 2013 have hurt minority voting rights, new report says

Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio, second from right, at a rally outside the Supreme Court in January to oppose an Ohio voter purge law. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights urged Congress on Wednesday to update the landmark law that protects voter rights, finding in a new report that a 2013 Supreme Court decision helped lead to elections with voting measures in place that discriminate against minorities.

But opposition from Republican lawmakers has stalled legislation to change the Voting Rights Act of 1965 since the 5-4 decision in Shelby County v. Holder that struck down a key enforcement mechanism in the law. Current efforts appear stuck for the same reason.

Democratic Poll Shows Tight Race for Ross’ Seat in Florida
Trump carried the 15th District by 10 points in 2016

Florida Rep. Dennis Ross is not running for re-election. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrat Kristen Carlson narrowly led Republican Ross Spano, well within the margin of error, in a poll of Florida’s open 15th District commissioned by her campaign. 

Carlson led Spano 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent of likely voters undecided.

New York’s 19th District Neck and Neck, Poll Shows
Advantages reported fall within margin of error

Rep. John Faso, R-N.Y., participates in a news conference on immigration reform at the Capitol on Wednesday, May 9, 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

GOP Rep. John Faso narrowly trailed his Democratic opponent in a new poll on the neck-and-neck race in New York’s 19th District.

Democratic lawyer Antonio Delgado edged Faso 45 percent to 43 percent among potential voters, a new Monmouth University Poll released Wednesday found. However, that lead and others reported all fell within the poll’s margin of error.