Electoral College

Under Next Electoral Map, Trump Would Still Have Won
Trump would gain 2 electoral votes under likely new map next census


Population trends are working against the Republican Party — at least that’s what we’ve been told.

But a combination of the 2016 presidential results and early looks at reapportionment after the 2020 census shows that the short-term changes may not be as dramatic as once believed.

Another Way Trump Could Flunk the Electoral College
An unusual election could hinge on the sentiments of electors

Donald Trump's narrow path to victory in the Electoral College may be even narrower than appears on the surface, writes Walter Shapiro. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Until recently, Nate Silver was every Democrat's favorite polling analyst, a statistical oracle hailed for the preternatural accuracy of his Barack Obama victory projections in 2008 and 2012. But lately, the God-like aura that once surrounded Silver has been replaced by liberal dismay over his soothsaying.

The reason for the fall from grace is that Silver now gives Donald Trump a 40-percent chance of winning in November. The widespread skepticism that the bilious billionaire might be elected prompted an exasperated Silver to recently tweet, "Never seen otherwise-smart people in so much denial as they are about Trump's chances. Same mistake as primaries. Brexit."

Ratings Change: 7 States Shift Toward Clinton in Electoral College
Democrat projected to win 332 electoral votes — she needs 270 to win

Donald Trump appears to be drowning in the wake of the conventions.

Rating Change: Utah No Longer Safe for Donald Trump
Presumptive GOP nominee has fundamental disconnect with Mormon voters

Opponents and supporters of Donald Trump confront each other outside the Infinity Event Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, where Trump spoke at a campaign rally in March. (George Frey/Getty Images File Photo)

President Barack Obama fell just short of 25 percent of the vote in Utah in the 2012 presidential election, but Donald Trump can’t take the Beehive State for granted this November.  

A June 2-8 poll by SurveyUSA for The Salt Lake Tribune showed Trump and Clinton tied at 35 percent, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 13 percent. It’s wise to avoid drastic conclusions based on a single poll (and an automated one at that), but there are other reasons for Trump to be concerned.  

Clinton Starts with a Decisive Advantage
Working-class whites aren't enough to carry Trump to victory

Hillary Clinton, shown here campaigning last week in Ashland, Ky., would face fewer negative factors working against her as Donald Trump does. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The warnings about jumping to conclusions about November are widespread.

I’ve heard that it’s early in the presidential race and that we underestimated Donald Trump last time so we should be careful now. I’ve also heard that Trump’s strength with working-class whites could change the electoral map, giving him a path to an Electoral College win.

Trump's Electoral Math Doesn't Add Up
Trump must redraw landscape to win some states where he sees victory in November

Trump makes plenty of wild, unsupported claims, so it shouldn’t be surprising that his promise to defeat Clinton appears to lack substance. (Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

Republican front-runner Donald Trump is asked repeatedly about polls showing him trailing Hillary Clinton badly in the general election. He always says the same thing: other polls show him winning, and Clinton will be very easy to defeat.

Is Trump merely blowing smoke, or could he re-draw the partisan landscape and win in November? Could he carry Michigan, or even New York, as he has started to assert?