New Hampshire’s 1st District has a history of flipping party control every two years, and this year doesn’t appear to be any different.
Regardless of who emerges from the Republican primary on Sept. 13 between incumbent Rep. Frank C. Guinta and businessman Rich Ashooh, the nominee will have a difficult fight in the general election.
If GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte is struggling to overcome Donald Trump’s post-convention plummet in New Hampshire, there is no reason to believe that either Guinta or Ashooh is in a position to do any better. Former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who won the seat in 2006, 2008, and 2012, looks poised to return to Congress again.
The Granite State district is the seventh seat currently held by Republicans in which Democrats now have an advantage. Democrats need to gain 30 seats for a majority in the House.
Democrats are all but certain to take over Florida’s 10th and 13th districts and Virginia’s 4th District after court-ordered redraws of the district lines. Democrats also have a narrow advantage over GOP Reps. Cresent Hardy of Nevada’s 4th District and Rod Blum in Iowa’s 1st District, as well as in Minnesota’s 2nd District, where Rep. John Kline is not seeking re-election. All three races are rated Tilts Democrat.
You can see a full analysis of New Hampshire's 1st District in the Aug. 19 issue of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.