Simone Pathé

2 New Polls Tell Different Stories in Open Michigan Seat
More than a quarter of voters still undecided in GOP survey

Two new partisan polls of the open-seat race in Michigan’s 11th District, where Republican Rep. Dave Trott is not seeking re-election, tell slightly different stories about the contest. 

Polling conducted for the GOP nominee, businesswoman Lena Epstein, and the National Republican Congressional Committee showed a neck-and-neck race with the Democrat narrowly ahead and more than a quarter of voters still undecided. 

NewDemPAC Helps Candidates Navigate Trump, Raise Money
Political arm of New Democrat Coalition has endorsed 38 recruits

With 38 endorsed candidates, the political arm of the moderate New Democrat Coalition is hoping to play a significant role helping Democrats win the House majority next month, and in doing so, grow their own business-friendly caucus. 

The coalition’s political action committee, founded in 2005, got involved in races earlier than ever before this cycle — at times choosing favorites in competitive primaries. It also hired a political director for the first time and has been able to help raise more than $2 million for candidates from members and donors.

Some Wealthy Republicans Give Themselves Q3 Campaign Cash Bumps
Select GOP candidates under pressure to dip into own accounts

Republicans have long been frustrated that a handful of candidates in tight races who could afford to loan their campaigns more of their own money had not done so.

A few of those GOP nominees changed that during the third quarter that ended Sept. 30, dipping into their personal resources to give their campaigns a cash infusion. Fundraising report filings were due Monday at midnight. 

Could Republicans in Competitive Districts Pursue NRCC Top Job?
NRCC head has usually been someone who can travel, fundraise for others

With many Republicans conceding their poor prospects of holding the House next month, attention outside the conference is beginning to turn to who will helm its campaign committee for the next cycle. 

Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers, who’s running for a fifth term in a safe Republican seat, is the current chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. It’s not uncommon for there to be turnover at the end of a cycle, and it’s largely understood Stivers is unlikely to remain in charge should the GOP lose its majority.

MacArthur Narrowly Ahead in New Jersey’s 3rd District, Poll Shows
After easily winning re-election in 2016, two-term incumbent faces close contest

New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur narrowly led his Democratic opponent in the Republican campaign’s polling of the 3rd District.

MacArthur led Andy Kim 44 to 40 percent in the survey from National Research Inc. Kim was a National Security Council staffer under former President Barack Obama

At the Races: You Only Raised $1 Million?
Our weekly newsletter on the latest in congressional campaigns

Welcome to At the Races! You can keep track of House and Senate races with this weekly newsletter by subscribing here. We want to hear what you think. Email us at attheraces@cqrollcall.com with your questions, tips or candidate sightings. — Simone Pathé, Bridget Bowman and Stephanie Akin

GOP Poll Puts Morrisey and Manchin Almost Even After Kavanaugh Vote
Manchin led Morrisey by 1 point in a poll conducted for the NRSC and Morrisey campaign

A new Republican poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows a tighter race between Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

Manchin led Morrisey 41 to 40 percent in the survey conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Morrisey’s campaign and obtained first by Roll Call. 

Bost and Kelly Essentially Tied in Democratic Poll of Illinois’ 12th District
Having trailed by 9 in July, Kelly now down 1 in new poll

New Democratic polling of Illinois’ 12th District gave GOP Rep. Mike Bost a 1-point lead over Democrat Brendan Kelly, an improvement for Kelly since a July survey of the race. 

Bost led Kelly 46 to 45 percent in the survey commissioned by End Citizens United.

Neck-and-Neck Race in Virginia’s 10th District, Comstock Poll Shows
Comstock led Wexton 48 to 47 percent among likely voters

New polling from Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock’s campaign shows a closer race in the 10th District than recent public polling would suggest.

Comstock led Democratic state Sen. Jennifer Wexton 48 to 47 percent in the survey by McLaughlin & Associates. Only 5 percent of voters were undecided.

GOP Super PAC Makes First Expenditure in Minnesota Pickup Opportunity
Congressional Leadership Fund targets DFL nominee Dan Feehan in 1st District

The super PAC tied to House Republican leadership is turning its attention to Minnesota’s 1st District, one of the GOP’s few pickup opportunities this cycle.

Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with its first TV ad on Wednesday, attacking Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Dan Feehan, an Iraq veteran and former deputy assistant Defense secretary for readiness.

They May Not Like Him, but New Jersey Voters Aren’t Ditching Menendez, Yet
Republican Bob Hugin is spending big, forcing DSCC to invest in deep-blue state

NORTH BERGEN, N.J. — Without mentioning him by name, Sen. Robert Menendez got in a dig at his opponent. 

Kicking off the 43rd annual Hispanic State Parade here Sunday, the New Jersey Democrat said he was happy to be here — “not for the first time, as some people are.”

That Minnesota Blue Dog Still Does Hunt
Collin Peterson, the last Democrat who can hold his Trump seat, isn’t giving up

BLOMKEST, Minn. — Rep. Collin C. Peterson shed his sport coat to inspect some shrimp. 

It was 86 degrees on a recent Thursday in the calf-barn-turned-tank room, where the son of two dairy farmers is raising saltwater shrimp in the middle of rural Minnesota. 

Trump Super PAC Continues Air Assault on Tester
American First Action is launching third TV ad against Montana Democrat

America First Action, a super PAC aligned with President Donald Trump, is going on the air in Montana with another TV ad attacking Democratic Sen. Jon Tester

The ad, obtained first by Roll Call, argues that Tester isn’t the Montana farmer he says he is, citing a 2017 Washington Post story that called him “as much a member of the Beltway elite as any other senator.” That’s become a standard Republican attack on Tester, who’s running for a third term against Montana Auditor Matt Rosendale in a state Tump carried by 20 points in 2016.

Mucarsel-Powell Narrowly Leads Curbelo in DCCC Poll of Florida’s 26th District
Same poll found her trailing by 7 points in August before she went on TV

Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell narrowly led two-term Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo, well within the margin of error, in a new Democratic poll of Florida’s 26th District. 

Mucarsel-Powell led the incumbent 50 percent to 48 percent in the poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm and obtained first by Roll Call. 

At the Races: The 10 Most Vulnerable Incumbents
Our weekly newsletter on congressional campaigns

Welcome to At the Races! You can keep track of House and Senate races with this weekly newsletter by subscribing here. We want to hear what you think. Email us at attheraces@cqrollcall.com with your questions, tips or candidate sightings. — Simone Pathé, Bridget Bowman and Stephanie Akin

The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators: Cruz, Menendez Make the List
One month before Election Day, Casey and Brown drop off

For the first time this cycle, the senators on the list of most vulnerable incumbents have changed.

Operatives in both parties agree Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania are favored to win re-election even though they are running in states that backed President Donald Trump in 2016. Texas Republican Ted Cruz and New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez replace them on the list.

The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents: Blum’s Still the One
Erik Paulsen and Bruce Poliquin make the list for first time this cycle

With one month to go until Election Day, two new names are on our latest ranking of the most vulnerable House incumbents, but once again, the list remains all-Republican.

Despite widely over-performing President Donald Trump in his district in 2016, Minnesota Rep. Erik Paulsen looks to be in tougher shape this year in a seat Hillary Clinton comfortably carried. He has company — four of the most vulnerable incumbents are running in Clinton districts, with Colorado’s Mike Coffman and Kansas’ Kevin Yoder moving up on the list. 

What Surprised Roll Call's Politics Team This Midterm Season (So Far)

Roll Call’s senior political reporters Bridget Bowman and Simone Pathé have new 10 Most Members Vulnerable lists out Thursday for the House and Senate with just over 30 days to go before Election Day. Watch as they recap the races that have surprised them as they've compiled these lists for the last year....
Minnesota Democrats Steer Clear of Republicans’ Controversial Comments About Women
Jason Lewis and Jim Hagedorn have both been attacked in past races for their comments

NEW PRAGUE, Minn. — A Minnesota Republican congressman once called young, single women “non-thinking.” Another GOP candidate once referred to Washington state’s female senators as “bimbos.”

But don’t expect their Democratic opponents to make hay of those old remarks this year. That’s a change from 2016, and perhaps a surprising one, given that in today’s national environment, Democratic women are energized like never before.

Lewis Narrowly Leads Craig in GOP Poll of Minnesota’s 2nd District
Freshman Republican running in tight rematch against 2016 opponent

A Republican poll has given Minnesota GOP Rep. Jason Lewis, who’s consistently ranked among the year’s most vulnerable incumbents, a narrow lead in his rematch against Angie Craig in the 2nd District. 

Lewis led the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee 46 percent to 43 percent — within the margin of error — in the survey conducted by WPAi for the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Lewis campaign, and obtained first by Roll Call. Eleven percent were undecided.