When House Republicans passed their measure to repeal and replace the 2010 health care law in May, 20 members of their conference voted against it.
While some of them might be able to defend themselves against criticism by saying they voted against a historically unpopular bill, they could find themselves in the same political peril as Democrats who voted against the original health care bill in 2010.
An analysis by Roll Call found that of the 34 House Democrats who voted against the legislation signed by President Barack Obama in 2010, 17 lost in the midterm elections later that year.
Two more lost in 2012, and another two lost in 2014. And none who ran for higher office, such as for governor or Senate, won. Others have since left office.
“That being said, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a factor. It created a great deal of the atmosphere,” Chandler said.
The atmosphere at the time was toxic, with angry constituents screaming at their elected representatives at town hall meetings, leading to an anti-Democratic wave which saw the GOP take back the House — much like the anger directed at Republicans this summer.
Chandler said health care votes are polarizing by nature.
“Any party that grabs onto health care is grabbing onto pure political poison,” he said.
Former Ohio Rep. Zack Space, who lost in 2010, said he voted against the final legislation because it lacked the public health care option that was in the original legislation.
“My concern was the bill needed a mechanism to keep costs down. I felt the public option was the way,” said Space, who is running for state auditor in Ohio this cycle.
Space said whether he voted for the bill or not, it wouldn’t have helped his chances in the midterms.
“Frankly, the party brand was compromised as a result of the legislation, than me individually,” he said. “I think I got caught up in a wave.”
Peterson said he does not regret his vote, even though Republicans have tried to use his subsequent votes against repealing it against him.
“This was always a political ploy. They used it against me,” he said. “I didn’t vote to repeal it, either, because we would have repealed those needed changes.”
Roll Call reached out to a number of vulnerable Republicans, up for re-election next year, who voted against the repeal bill, but none responded to our inquiries.
Of the 20 Republicans who voted against the GOP health care bill, eight are facing competitive re-election races, according to Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, including Texas Rep. Will Hurd, whose contest is rated a Toss-Up.
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who voted against the bill, is leaving Congress at the end of this term. But that didn’t affect her vote, the Florida Republican said.
“If I had chosen to run again, I would have voted the same way because the impact of the ACA repeal bill is the same regardless if my name appears on the ballot,” she said.
But a former GOP operative who was involved in the 2010 midterm elections said health care is only one of the issues on which Democrats were attacked then.
“The big three votes were stimulus, cap-and-trade and then Obamacare,” the operative said. “If you were to look at the early part of that cycle, a significant amount of them were on the stimulus.”
The 2010 election was largely fueled by energy from the tea party movement and Republicans tied vulnerable Democrats to their leadership in Congress including then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Democrats are hoping to similarly tie House Republicans to President Donald Trump and current Speaker Paul D. Ryan.
But the GOP operative said it might be harder to tie Republicans to Trump.
“Trump by his rhetoric is not a typical Republican,” he said. “The voter understands there is a difference.”
Jeb Fain, a communications adviser at the House Majority PAC, which works to elect Democrats to the House, said that while Ryan might have given some Republican members a pass to vote against the health care legislation, voters won’t.
“Records and votes matter,” said Fain, who worked for former New York Rep. Michael Arcuri — one of the Democrats who voted against the 2010 health care bill and still lost.
“Many of these members have voted multiple times to repeal and undermine the Affordable Care Act,” he said.