This election season has been weird. Republicans are still running away from having to answer any questions about their nominee for the presidency. Libertarians are telling everyone to “feel the Johnson.” It looks like Sanders may not be going anywhere until the convention.
All signs point to things just getting weirder.
Never fear. Though Roll Call can’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen in November, our data and graphics team has been hard at work assembling the charts you’ll need in order to get a handle on things.
Trump’s competition is toast
We may keep hearing about last-minute GOP presidential candidate switches right up until the eve of the convention. But there’s nobody being talked about as an alternative who voters actually know or like.
Bill Kristol, editor of the conservative Weekly Standard tried to make David French happen , and various figures have mentioned Ben Sasse as an establishment alternative. But an Economist/YouGov poll showed the only name recognition for either politician comes from immediate family and close relatives.
Nobody’s feeling the Johnson
If you pegged your hopes on anti-establishment libertarian Gary Johnson to take down Trump as a third-party candidate, again, you’re in for a disappointment. Simply put, most people don’t know who he is , which would likely pose problems in an election.
Bad news for Trump
Trump will almost definitely come out of the GOP convention as Hillary Clinton’s only real opponent for the presidency. That’s where his good fortune ends. A CQ/Roll Call survey of GOP Hill aides found they don’t have much faith in their presumptive nominee. About 64 percent expect Clinton to win, and 22 percent expect her to win in a landslide.
Neither nominee is popular
Pundits suggest Clinton might cruise through November, but she still has some worrying weaknesses. According to an Economist/YouGov poll of independent voters, Trump is about as unpopular as expected — more than 60 percent of respondents view him unfavorably. But Clinton isn’t far behind.
The presidential race looks like a foregone conclusion
Caveat: Things can change, especially in a year when Trump’s success confounded nearly
mainstream political analyst. Still, at this point the Roll Call Election Tracker projects Clinton will win 332 electoral votes, well over the 270 threshold she needs to capture the White House. That includes likely Clinton victories in traditional battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.