10 Races to Watch in 2016: New Hampshire’s 1st District
Will 2016 host another rematch between Republican Frank Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter?
Shea-Porter narrowly lost to Guinta this year, handing him the seat the two have traded back and forth for the three cycles. Despite this, the Democrat is not ruling out round four. Shea-Porter told NH1 last week, “everything is on the table,” for 2016.
It’s unclear whether national Democrats want her to run again in 2016, or if they’d prefer a new face. She is not the strongest fundraiser, but she has proved she can win the seat on multiple occasions — especially with a presidential-cycle turnout boost.
Even if Shea-Porter does not run, the race will be very competitive. Democrats have historically done very well in New Hampshire in presidential years — they swept every both congressional seats and the governor’s election in 2012 and 2008 — and there’s no shortage of candidates.
If Shea-Porter passes, operatives suggested several other candidates including Executive Councilor Chris Pappas, a Manchester Democrat who already represents a part of the district. They name state Sen. Andrew Hosmer of Laconia as another possibility, along with state Sen. Donna Soucy of Manchester. Another possibility: state Sen. Martha Fuller Clark of Portsmouth, who was the Democratic nominee for this seat in 2000 and 2002.
But the eventual Democratic nominee will have to fight for attention and airtime in the Granite State, with a
highly competitive Senate race
and a presidential race also on the ballot in 2016.
Correction 9:50 a.m. This post previously misstated the part of New Hampshire that Soucy represents.
Editor’s Note: Over the next two weeks, Roll Call will unveil its Top 10 Races to Watch for 2016. The final edition will run on Jan. 2 with the full list. In no specific order, additional races to watch in 2016 include
Illinois Senate, Nevada Senate, North Carolina Senate,
Pennsylvania Senate, Florida’s 2nd District and
New York’s 11th District
The 114th: CQ Roll Call’s Guide to the New Congress
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