Kentucky: Polls Show Both Parties’ Primaries Competitive

Posted November 4, 2009 at 6:48pm

A slew of new polling numbers released this week has the two Democratic Senate candidates at odds over who has momentum just six months from the primary.

On Tuesday, the automated polling firm SurveyUSA released a poll that was commissioned by a Kentucky television station, which showed Lt. Gov Daniel Mongiardo with an 11-point lead over Attorney General Jack Conway in the Democratic primary. Mongiardo led 39 percent to 28 percent with 16 percent undecided.

The survey of 602 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted Oct. 30 through Nov. 2 and had a 4-point margin of error.

After the poll was released, Mongiardo’s camp issued a statement touting the results.

Conway’s camp responded by releasing its own internal poll that showed a much closer race.

According to that survey, Mongiardo held a 3-point lead over Conway, which put the contest at a statistical dead heat. That survey also found that while Mongiardo was better known than Conway, the attorney general had a stronger job approval rating than the lieutenant governor.

The poll of 800 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted for Conway by Benenson Strategy Group Oct. 4-7 and had a 3.5-point margin of error.

The SurveyUSA poll found that Conway performed better than Mongiardo in hypothetical general election matchups against Republicans Rand Paul and Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

When SurveyUSA just tested likely Republican voters, it found that Paul beat Grayson 35 percent to 32 percent in the GOP primary. That poll had a 5-point margin of error.