McCain Trailing in Key Swing States

Posted June 18, 2008 at 12:55pm

Today’s Quinnipiac Presidential Swing State Poll, a regular survey of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio looks particularly gloomy for John McCain. Barack Obama has a statistically significant lead over McCain in each of the states, which are, of the most competitive states, the richest in electoral delegates.

In Florida, Obama enjoys a modest 47 percent to 43 percent lead, buoyed largely by significant leads among women, voters under 35, and African-Americans. This difference is similar to the one found in an American Research Group survey also released today, showing Obama up 49 to 44 percent.

McCain is trailing in Ohio by a 6 point margin (48 to 42 percent). Obama leads by 18 points among voters concerned primarily with the economy, around half of the electorate, and enjoys a significant advantage in favorability ratings.

Of the three, Obama’s biggest advantage is in Pennsylvania, 52 to 40 percent, where he leads in almost every demographic.

The American Research Group survey’s margin of error is +/- 4 percent. The Quinnipiac surveys have a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent in Florida and Ohio and +/- 2.5 percent in Pennsylvania.