Good News For Obama May Be Not-Such-Good News

Posted June 17, 2008 at 7:34am

Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain (48 to 42 percent) in today’s ABC News/Washington Post poll may not be as significant for Obama as it appears. Here’s why:

*Obama is in a virtual tie with McCain for the support of independents. He leads McCain by just one point (44-43 percent) among this critical group of voters.

*Obama did not get a post-Clinton “bounce” – he is leading by about the same amount as one month ago. On May 11, the margin was 7 percentage points (51-44).

*His edge is nowhere near as wide as in “generic perference in local congressional elections,” where the Democratic lead over Republicans is 15 points (52-37 percent).

Obama supporters do seem to be much more enthusiastic about their candidate than McCain supporters: 91 percent of them say they are “enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic” about their candidate, while McCain captured a 73 percent enthusiasm response.

The poll was conducted June 12-15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.