Americans Predict Obama Will Win

Posted June 16, 2008 at 9:10am

While latest daily Gallup tracking poll finds that Barack Obama and John McCain are virtually tied (44 to 42 percent), a large margin of Americans believe Obama will win in November.

In a separate poll released today, Gallup says that, by a wide margin (52-41 percent), voters believe Obama will win the Presidency. It wasn’t just Democrats predicting this; independent voters also think so, albeit by a smaller pecentage (50-41). Only Republicans didn’t go along – 67 percent thought McCain would win.

Interestingly, Gallup notes: “While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he will win. Adults aged 18 to 34 are essentially divided between choosing Obama and McCain as the likely winner: 48% predict an Obama win vs. 45% for McCain. By contrast, the majority of Americans 55 and older say Obama will win.”

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.