How Will the Swing States of 2004 Vote?

Posted May 31, 2008 at 3:06pm

***This posting has been corrected to include additional polls of Ohio, New Hampshire and New Mexico that show different results than some of the other polls originally cited. We’d like to thank our readers for pointing out the omissions***

With too much time on our hands, we decided to sift through Poll Tracker’s round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups to see what the polls were saying about states where George Bush or John Kerry won by 5 points or less in 2004. There were 11 of them. This is an iffy exercise because polls conducted in April and May are a long way off from November. And in Michigan, fully one-fifth of voters told pollsters they were undecided. Finally, these are polls conducted before the Democratic race is decided, and that injects a whole set of dynamics of its own.

We’ll just list here the latest polls we found in these closely contested states from four years ago, because some of the polls conflict, making it impossible to put these states in one column or the other.