Swing State Polls Have Bad News for Obama

Posted May 22, 2008 at 11:17am

Barack Obama finds himself facing a challenge in two key general election swing states because of his difficulty in holding on to supporters of Hillary Clinton and white working class voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted May 13-20. His weaknesses are most apparent in Florida and Ohio, but in all three swing states, which include Pennsylvania, he has alarmingly low levels of support from Clinton supporters when it comes to a direct match-up with John McCain.

– **Florida:** McCain leads Obama 45 percent to 41 percent, with a 2.6 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 48 percent to 39 and they run evenly among women. Clinton would have a 17 point lead over McCain among women and run closer to him among men. Democrats split at 41 percent each in their preference for Obama or Clinton, but ominously for Obama, Clinton supporters say they would back him against McCain by only a 43 percent to 36 percent margin. Floridians split on whether they trust McCain or Obama more to handle the economy, they trust McCain more on Iraq by 10 points and on terrorism by 24 points. Obama bests McCain on health care by 13 points. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 19, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 40 percent with 6 percent preferring “other” than 3 percent undecided. Clinton led McCain 47 percent to 41 percent.

– **Ohio:** McCain leads Obama 44 percent to 40 percent, with a 2.8 percent margin of error. Clinton leads McCain 48 percent to 41 percent. McCain leads Obama among men voters 47 percent to 39 percent, while Obama has a bare 42 percent to 40 percent advantage among women. By contrast, Clinton runs evenly with McCain among men and leads him by 16 points among women voters. Clinton backers say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 50 percent to 26 percent margin. Voters trust Obama more than McCain by 6 points on the economy and McCain by 14 percent over Obama on Iraq. A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted May 15 had Obama locked with McCain at 45 percent to 44 percent with 5 percent choosing “other” and 5 percent undecided. If Clinton were to stage a miracle and become the nominee, she’d be leading McCain 50 percent to 43 percent.

– **Pennsylvania:**Obama leads McCain 46 percent to 40 percent with a 2.4 percent margin of error. Clinton is ahead 50 percent to 37 percent. McCain and Obama split men voters while Obama leads McCain by 12 points among women. Clinton would also run close to McCain among men but has a 26 point advantage among women. Democrats who back Clinton say they would support Obama over McCain by only a 51 percent to 32 percent margin. They trust Obama more on the economy by 11 points and favor McCain on Iraq by 6 points. In a SurveyUSA poll) conducted May 16-18,Obama has a 48 percent to 40 percent lead over McCain with 12 percent undecided.