Dem Dead Heat in Gallup Daily Poll, but Obama Ahead in Another

Posted May 9, 2008 at 3:21pm

Barack Obama’s big win in North Carolina and Hillary Clinton’s close call in Indiana, followed by growing talk of an end to the Clinton candidacy, did not have much of an impact on the numbers in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. Obama leads by a statistically insignificant 48 percent to 46 percent in Gallup’s May 6-8 survey, in which it said that two-thirds of the interviews were done after the results were known. The margin of error is 3 percent. The “dead heat” streak is now 16 days old, just one day shy of Yankee left-fielder Hideki Matsui’s hitting streak which he extended to 17 days yesterday against the Cleveland Indians.

A Hotline/Diageo poll conducted April 30 – May 3, before Tuesday’s primaries, has Obama ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 37 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 5 percent. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats woul stand by Obama if he wins the nomination (56 percent enthusiastically and 21 percent because they oppose John McCain). Clinton’s numbers are a little different. She also would get the vote of 77 percent of Democrats but only 50 percent expressed enthusiasm while the rest just wanted to vote against the Republicans. Asked if Obama had attacked Clinton unfairly, only 21 percent said yes, but 50 percent said Clinton had attacked Obama unfairly.

In general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent undecided, while Clinton edges him 46 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent. Ralph Nader gets 5 percent in a Obama-McCain race and 4 percent in a Clinton-McCain race. Obama’s favorabilty ratio is 52 percent to 39 percent on the positive side, Clinton’s is 49 percent to 47 percent and McCain’s is 48 percent to 39 percent.

Congress’ job approval rating – or should we say disapproval rating – is 69 percent disapproving of its performance compared to 27 percent who approve.