As Howard Dean Would Say: “We’re Going on to W. Va., Kentucky …”

Posted May 7, 2008 at 10:34am

Here’s the outlook for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in three of the next six (and last!) primaries. These surveys were conducted before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. The numbers aren’t very surprising but there is some disturbing news for Obama in some in terms of how many Democrats would stick with him in a general election contest again John McCain:

**West Virginia (May 13):** A big lead for Clinton whose margin over Obama was 56 percent to 27 percent with 17 percent undecided, according to a May 4 Rasmussen Reports survey. Clinton enjoys a 72 percent favorability rating to 48 percent for Obama. Seventy-two percent said they’d likely vote for Clinton over McCain in November, but only 56 percent said that for Obama. Fifty-seven percent believe that Obama shares some of the views of his ex-pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

**Kentucky (May 20):** No surprises here either. Clinton has always been a runaway here, and a Rasmussen Reports poll on May 5 showed her ahead of Obama 56 percent to 31 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Seventy-eight percent of Democrats said they’d vote for Clinton over McCain but just 55 percent said they’d do the same for Obama. Fifty-five percent of voters favor a federal gas tax holiday such as Clinton has proposed versus 34 percent opposed.

**Oregon (May 20):** Obama leads Clinton 51 percent to 39 percent in a Rasmussen poll conducted May 1. The margin of error is 3 points. Clinton’s usually consistent lead among senior citizens – who probably helped save her in Indiana – is insignificant here. Both have favorability ratings in the 70s.

The other three primaries are Puerto Rico on June 1, and Montana and South Dakota on June 3.