Updated: Clinton Leads Most Indiana Polls, Obama Ahead in N.C.

Posted May 5, 2008 at 11:18pm

Most polls in North Carolina and Indiana, which vote Tuesday, show Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton in North Carolina by a diminished margin compared to the big double-digit leads where he started out, and Clinton leading in most Indiana polls, also by less than where she was earlier. Check out the different takes on the South Carolina race between Public Policy Polling and InsiderAdvantage.

But the two contests that are both shaping up as close is the fight for actual delegates. For special CQ Politics analyses of how the contest for delegates is going in each of tomorrow’s primaries. see Slim Obama Victory in N.C. Delegates Predicted and Close Delegate Split Expected in Indiana.

Here are the polls on both states that have been released so far today:

***Indiana***

**Public Policy Polling:** Clinton is leading Obama 51 percent to 46 percent in a survey conducted May 3-4. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. She has lost a point since last week as Obama shored up his support with black voters, with his margin over Clinton rising 16 points among them. The open primary also helps him since he trails Clinton by 10 points among Democrats but leads her 48 percent to 45 percent among Republicans and 52 percent to 39 percent among unaffiliated voters.

**SurveyUSA:** Clinton leads Obama 54 percent to 42 percent in this poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. She runs evenly with Obama among males but runs away from him among women, 60 percent to 38 percent. She trumps Obama in every age bracket except voters under 34. Her lead among white voters (87 percent of the sample) is 58 percent to 39 percent while Obama’s advantage among black voters (10 percent of the sample) is 77 percent to 21 percent. Fifty-three percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and they support Clinton 57 percent to 40 percent. On Iraq, named by 14 percent of voters, Obama is ahead 56 percent to 42 percent.

– **Suffolk University:** Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 43 percent among likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana with 6 percent undecided, according to a Suffolk University poll conducted May3-4. The margin of error is 4 percent. A striking 38 percent of voters said they’d defect to John McCain in November if their choice of the nomination doesn’t win. Despite Clinton’s leads, Obama’s favorability rating was higher with 58 percent viewing him favorably versus 29 percent, while Clinton’s was 53 percent compared to 36 percent. Thirty-five percent of voters said they believed Obama would be the next president, 28 percent said Clinton and 25 percent named McCain.

**Zogby:**This daily tracking poll, which has shown the Indiana race to be tighter than other surveys, says Obama leads 44 percent to 42 percent with eight percent undecided and 7 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted May 3-4 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.

**American Research Group:** Clinton leads 53 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent undecided in a poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama has a 4 point lead among men compared to Clinton’s 18 point lead among women. Clinton leads among white voters (84 percent of the sample) by 60 percent to 38 percent, while Obama leads by 90 percent to 8 percent among black voters (12 percent of the sample).

***North Carolina***

**SurveyUSA:** Obama leads 50 percent to 45 percent with 2 percent undecided in this poll conducted May 2-4. The margin of error is 3.5 percent. SurveyUSA says “with 25% of votes already cast, Barack Obama has no breathing room in his hope to defeat Hillary Clinton in popular votes.”

**Zogby:** Obama is ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 40 percent, with 8 percent undecided and 5 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted during the same period as Indiana with the same margin of error. It’s about the same result of the last three Zogby daily polls, but contrasts to the 16 point lead Obama had in the April 30- May 1 survey.

**American Research Group:** Obama leads 50 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent undecided and 4 percent preferring someone else. The poll was conducted May 2-4 and has a 4 point margin of error. At the end of March, Obama had a 13 point lead but his margins since then have been between 8 and 10 points. Clinton has a big lead among men and is statistically tied with Clinton among women. Clinton leads Obama 62 percent to 27 percent among white voters ( 60 percent of the sample) and Obama leads among black voters 88 percent to 9 percent (36 percent of the sample).

**Public Policy Polling:** Obama has a 53 percent to 43 percent lead in a survey conducted May 3-4. the margin of error is 3.3 percent. PPP says this is the smallest lead Obama has had in its poll in six weeks, but adds, “At the end of the day North Carolina’s demographics make it nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to do much better than a ten point loss here.” The pollster estimates 35 percent of the turnout will be black voters and Obama’s 84 percent to 11 percent advantage among them will blunt Clinton’s 60 percent to 34 percent margin among whites.

**Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion:** Someone has to be the contrarian and this pollster is it. In this survey Obama leads by only 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided, with the margin of error at 3 percent. The poll was conducted May 4. Taking the flip-side of PPP’s analysis, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery says: “Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% – very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory…(but) African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls.”