Tight Race in Indiana, Getting Tighter in North Carolina

Posted May 3, 2008 at 10:47am

Hillary Clinton has drawn to within single digits of Barack Obama in North Carolina where he had earlier on been enjoying large leads, while the two are running head-to-head in Indiana where Clinton had been the clear early frontrunner, says a Zogby poll conducted May 1-2.

In North Carolina, Obama leads 46 percent to 37 percent with 9 percent “not sure” and 8 percent wanting “someone else.” The margin of error is 4 percent. Obama’s lead in a April 30-May 1 survey had been 50 percent to 34 percent. Clinton was gaining among white voters among whom she had already led, and picking up some more support among black voters, although they still overwhelmingly back Obama.

In Indiana, Obama edges Clinton 43 percent to 42 percent, well within the 4 point margin of error. Eight percent are undecided and 7 percent would like someone else.

Eleven percent of Obama supporters in Indiana and 13 percent in North Carolina said they were less likely to support him because of the controversy over his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

In both states taken together, 19 percent of Democrats said they would defect to John McCain if Obama won the nomination and 17 percent said they’d back McCain if Clinton won. In North Carolina yesterday, both candidates made a point of saying they would support the other if their own campaigns fell short.

Compare today’s Zogby to the polls in each state from yesterday.

**North Carolina:**

– **Zogby (Friday):** Obama is leading Clinton by 50 percent to 34 percent with 8 percent not sure and 8 percent wanting someone else. Margin of error was 3.9 percent
– **American Research Group:** Obama ahead 52 percent to 41 percent with 5 percent undecided and 2 percent wanting someone else. Margin of error was 4 percent.
– **Rasmussen Reports:** Obama ahead of Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent. Margin of error was 4 percent.
– **Mason-Dixon:** Obama led Clinton 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided in a poll conducted April 28-29. The margin of error was 5 percent.

**Indiana:**

– **Mike Downs Center:** Clinton leads Obama 52 percent to 45 percent. Margin of error is 3.8 percent.
– **American Research Group:** Clinton ahead 53 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error.
– **Zogby (Friday):**Clinton and Obama are tied at 42 percent each with 9 percent not sure and 7 percent pining for someone else. The margin of error is 3.8 percent.