New Polls Add to Mixed Bag of Indiana Predictions

Posted May 2, 2008 at 11:03am

Three new polls in Indiana – two showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama and the other saying the race is a tie – add to the conflicting results from surveys released over the last week.

Clinton leads Obama 52 percent to 45 percent in a poll of registered Democrats likely to vote in Tuesday’s primary, according to the Mike Downs Center on Indiana Politics. The margin of error is 3.8 percent. The poll was conducted April 28-30 and has a margin of error of 3.8 percent. A previous poll in mid-April had Obama ahead by 5 points. The poll said Clinton had “flipped” the earlier advantage held by Obama among independents. She now leads 56 percent to 38 percent among “pure” independents, 54 percent to 46 percent among Republican-leaning independents and she has drawn even with Obama among Democratic-leaning independents at 47 percent.

Half of Indiana voters said the economy was the top issue and they broke 56 percent to 42 percent in favor of Clinton. Of the 13 percent who singled out Iraq, Obama led 52 percent to 47 percent, but that was down from his 17 point margin in mid-April.

In a general election match-up, even though Indiana is a solid “red” state in presidential elections, both Clinton and Obama are competitive with John McCain. She leads 48 percent to 45 percent and Obama leads 48 percent to 47 percent. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.

American Research Group, in a poll conducted April 30-May 1, shows Clinton ahead 53 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. Clinton leads 59 percent to 37 percent among white voters (84 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 87 percent to 9 percent among black voters (12 percent of the sample).

Breaking from today’s pack, a Zogby poll of Indiana, conducted April 30-May 1, says Clinton and Obama are tied at 42 percent each with 9 percent not sure and 7 percent pining for someone else. The margin of error is 3.8 percent.