Seven More Pa. Polls: Clinton’s Margins are 10, 7, 6, 5 and 3
Seven Pennsylvania polls (are there enough voters to go around?) since the ones we reported yesterday:
– **Suffolk University:** Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 52 percent to 42 percent, with 4 percent undecided, in a poll conducted April 19-20. The margin of error is 4 percent. A fifth of Democrats said they’d vote for John McCain if their choice for Democratic nominee does not win and 4 percent said they’d vote for Ralph Nader.
– **InsiderAdvantage:** Clinton leads 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided in this poll conducted April 20. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery attributes the large undecided number to “the barrage of negative TV commercials and attack statements…When a campaign becomes a blow-for-blow blood-fest played out in news media, that usually drives up the number of undecided voters.”
– **Strategic Vision:** A survey conducted April 18-20 showed Clinton leading Obama 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. As noted yesterday, the undecideds in most of the past primaries have broken for Clinton. In a look-ahead to the general election, Strategic Vision said John McCain was ahead of Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent and Obama by 48 percent to 40 percent.
– **Quinnipiac University:** This poll also has Clinton ahead by 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted April 18-20. The margin of error is 3.1 points. Quinnipiac’s Clay Richards said, “Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them.”
– **SurveyUSA:** A poll conducted April 18-20 has Clinton at 50 percent to 44 percent over Obama with a 3.8 percent margin of error.
– **Rasmussen Reports:** Clinton leads Obama 49 percent to 44 percent in a survey conducted April 20. Margin of error is 4 points. Seven percent are undecided.This is a state where Clinton’s favorability is positive, at 71 percent of likely primary voters compared to 69 percent for Obama. But less than half of each candidates’ supporters have a favorable view of their rival.
– **Public Policy Polling:** Clinton is in a tight race with Obama at 49 percent to 46 percent with a 2 percent margin of error in a survey conducted April 19-20.
The weekend polls broke down this way:
– **McClatchy/MSNBC Pittsburgh Post Gazette:** Clinton 48 percent, Obama 43 perced, 8 percent undecided and a 4 point margin of error. Conducted April 17-18.
– **American Research Group:** Clinton 54 percent, Obama 41 percent and a 4 point margin of error. Conducted April 17-19.
– **Zogby:** Clinton 46 percent. Obama 43 percent, and a 4.1 percent margin of error. Conducted April 18-19.
In the SurveyUSA poll conducted for Philadelphia’s NBC 10, Clinton’s 6 point lead compared to 14 points last week. The station concluded: “Clinton will carry the symbolically important popular vote, but not by enough to gain material advantage in pledged delegates.” That squares with a CQ Politics analysis of last week that whatever way the popular vote goes, the delegate split between Clinton and Obama is likely to be close.