Our Latest Round-Up of State-by-State General Election Match-Ups

Posted April 19, 2008 at 12:49pm

Our latest additions to our round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups confirm some trends we’ve noted before that our reflected not only in these polls but national ones: Hillary Clinton is on a downhill slide in her favorability ratings, and Iraq appears to be a vulnerability for John McCain in a race against either Clinton or Barack Obama, as voters who rate that as the top issue favor eith Democrat by signficant margins. (There are a couple of good pieces today about McCain on al-Qaeda and Iraq in the *New York Times* and *Salon*).

– **Colorado:** McCain and Obama are in a statistical dead heat with Obama leading 46 percent to 43 percent while McCain leads Clinton 50 percent to 36 percent in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted April 16. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. For those of you who follow the Poll Tracker links to go to the source, Rasmussen has decided to present these results via video, and there’s something squirrely about the address, so we didn’t include it). Rasmussen says one reason for the difference is that Obama leads McCain by 44 percent to 34 percent among unaffiliated voters while McCain beats Clinton 49 percent to 28 percent, an outcome similar to many other state polls. McCain bests Clinton among both men and women voters while holding a slimmer lead among men over Obama and trailing him among women. Obama’s favorability rating has slipped from 60 percent in February and 55 percent a month ago to 53 percent, a trend reflected also in Newsweek’s new national poll. McCain’s favorability rating is 57 percent and Clinton is way behind at 40 percent.

**Washington state:** Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 40 percent while Clinton is ahead of McCain by 48 percent to 45 percent, in a Survey USA poll conducted April 14-16. The margin of error is 4 percent. Both Obama and Clinton have big leads over McCain among women voters, but it’s a split decision among men: Obama leads McCain by 7 points while Clinton trails him by the same amount. The biggest age gap is among voters under 34, who favor Obama by 42 points and Clinton by 14. Obama has an 11 point lead here over McCain among white voters. He runs ahead of McCain 55 percent to 34 percent among independents while McCain runs about even in this group with Clinton. Thirty-six percent of voters name the economy as the top issue and while Obama has a 16 point lead over McCain among them, McCain runs even with Clinton. Of the 19 percent of voters who name Iraq, both Democrats have about a 2-to-1 lead over McCain. An April 7 poll by SurveyUSA had Obama ahead of McCain by 51 percent to 44 percent while McCain was in a virtual 46 percent to 45 percent tie with Clinton