A New Round-Up of State-by-State General Election Polls
The folks at SurveyUSA were busy during the April 11-13 period, and now have disgorged 14 state general election match-ups for their media customers around the country. One common theme through most of the polls that stood out sharply were the large margins by which voters favored both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over John McCain on Iraq, even in states where McCain’s other numbers were good. It also stood out that Clinton fared the worst among independents in most of the states.
So, here’s our summary of SurveyUSA’s findings:
– **California:** In this “must” state for Democrats, Clinton leads McCain 53 percent to 40 percent and Obama is ahead of him 50 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. The biggest gender difference is Clinton’s 18 point lead among women voters. The biggest age gap is under-34 voters, where Clinton leads 65 percent to 26 percent and Obama has a 64 percent to 31 percent edge. Both Obama and Clinton have leads in the 2-to-1 range among the 28 percent of the voter sample that is Hispanic. Among independents, it’s Clinton who does best against McCain, leading him 51 percent to 36 percent while the difference with Obama is statistically insignificant. Thirty-six percent of voters say the economy is the top issue and Obama and Clinton both lead McCain by about 10 points. Iraq is second at 16 percent and Clinton leads McCain among these voters by 41 points and Obama leads him by 48 points. Immigration was cited by 11 percent and McCain has 2-to-1 leads over both Democrats.
– **New York:** Clinton beats McCain 59 percent to 35 percent in her home state, while Obama leads 52 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. Clinton and Obama have big leads over McCain among women voters, as well as among voters under 34. Clinton also has a big lead in the 35-to-49 group, besting McCain 61 percent to 35 percent. Thirty-seven percent cite the economy as the top issue and, among them, both Democrats have significant leads over McCain and the same is true for the 16 percent of voters who named Iraq as the top issue. Health care was a close third at 14 percent and Clinton had a 4-to-1 lead over McCain here, and Obama more than a 3-to-1 lead.