Dems Ahead, But McCain Close In New Jersey

Posted April 3, 2008 at 10:58am

We expressed some surprise the other day about how well John McCain was doing in New Jersey in a Rasmussen Reports poll that showed him statistically tied with both potential Democratic opponents. A new Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll doesn’t have McCain tied, but it does have him close: with Clinton ahead 48 percent to 43 percent and Obama by 47 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Obama’s advantage over Clinton against McCain is that he does better among independent voters. Clinton’s advantage over Obama is that she holds together more of the Democratic base than he does. On the other hand, Republicans are more united behind McCain in a race against Clinton than Obama, although in either case, McCain can count on the support of 80 percent or more of them.

Dan Cassino of Fairleigh Dickinson said, “New Jersey is reflective of the national race. Clinton is a polarizing figure, getting more support from the Democratic base at the cost of solidifying McCain’s support among Republicans.”