Big Racial Divide In New York If It’s An Obama-McCain Race

Posted March 25, 2008 at 10:40am

Somehow, Poll Tracker missed a Quinnipiac University poll published on Friday showing New York firmly in the column no matter which Democrat is nominated. The poll, conducted March 16-18, said Hillary Clinton leads John McCain 50 percent to 40 percent while Barack Obama bests him 49 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 2.5 percent. A previous SurveyUSA poll, conducted March 14-16, had Clinton ahead 54 percent to 41 percent while Obama led 52 percent to 44 percent.

Quinnipiac noted “a huge racial split” if the race were to be between Obama and McCain, with McCain leading among white voters 47 percent to 41 percent, while Obama was ahead among black voters 86 percent to 6 percent. Clinton runs evenly with McCain among white voters and leads among black voters 70 percent to 16 percent. SurveyUSA poll had McCain leading Obama among whites by 51 percent to 40 percent, and Obama leading among black voters 85 percent to 9 percent. SurveyUSA’s numbers for Clinton were similar to those of Quinnipiac.

Maurice Carroll, head of Quinnipiac’s Polling Institute, said, “Those racial and gender breakdowns are troubling for the Democrats. If Obama trails among white voters in New York, one of the most liberal states in the nation, what does that say about his chances in other states?”

Forty-seven percent of voters named economy as the top issue in the campaign and, asked about their own financial situations, 18 percent said they are “getting ahead,” 64 percent said they are “holding steady” and 17 percent said they are “falling behind.”