Updating Our State-By-State General Election Match-Ups

Posted March 24, 2008 at 10:53am

There are new general election match-ups out today for North Carolina and Nevada, bringing the number of state polls we have collected in our round-up to 30 states, with a total of 300 electoral votes, when older surveys are eliminated for states where there are newer polls. Here is a summary, hardly scientific, of where things stand by this measure, particularly since California and New York skew the result in a sample of less than all 50 states:

John McCain has leads beyond the margin of error over both Democrats in 8 states, plus one state (Ohio) where he beats Barack Obama but is in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton. The 8 states account for 93 delegates. McCain’s states: Kansas, Arkansas, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee and North Carolina. He is behind by a statistically significant margin in Oregon, Washington state and New Mexico but the numbers are close enough for the races to be called competitive. He is in a statistical tie in 4 states with both Democrats. States where he is in a tie with either Democrat are Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Obama and Hillary Clinton have clear leads in the same 6 states with 115 delegates. They are: California, New York, Oregon, Washington state, New Mexico and Connecticut. However, Obama leads McCain in Iowa while Clinton runs statistically even, so he has 122 delegates to her 115. Obama is roughly tied with McCain in 6 other states while Clintomn runs fairly evenly in 8.

To check out our round-up state-by-state, read on after the jump.