Toting Up Electoral Votes: One Count Puts Dems Ahead

Posted March 22, 2008 at 10:49am

Rasmussen Reports has put together a “Balance of Power Calculator,” based in large part on polling it has done in many states, It puts the Democrats ahead of Republicans 200 votes to 189 when states scored “safe” or “likely” for either party are combined. When “leaning” states are added, Democrats lead 247 to 229, with 270 required to elect.

Here’s how Rasmussen got to its totals:

– Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
– Likely Democratic: New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).
– Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and Pennsylvania (21).
– Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Michigan (17), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Ohio (20).
– Leans Republican: Florida (27), Virginia (13).
– Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).
– Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

CQ Politics has been keeping a round-up of state-by-state general election match-ups, including by Rasmussen, and you can find it here beginning with Rasmussen’s poll today on Arkansas.