Five Polls Show Clinton With Clear Ohio Lead; Two Others Say No

Posted March 3, 2008 at 3:06pm

A new round of polls are out this morning on Ohio. Two of them show Hillary Clinton with leads over Barack Obama beyond the margin of error; one gives her a lead a whisker above the margin of error; and a fourth has the race a statistical tie. It’s a different story in Texas where most of the polls agree the race is to close to predict.

– The Ohio Poll is making Hillary Clinton the clear favorite over Barack Obama in tomorrow’s vote, putting her out in front 51.3 percent to 42.3 percent with a 3.9 percent margin of error. John Edwards still appears in this poll and he got 6 percent. The poll was conducted Feb. 28- Mar. 2. Polls yesterday by Zogby and Mason-Dixon showed a much closer race, although American Research Group on Saturday had Clinton in front beyond the margin of error. John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 53.4 percent to 23.7 percent with a 5.4 percent margin of error.
– A March 2 survey by Rasmussen Reports also has Clinton holding off what had been a steady surge by Obama. Rasmussen has Clinton ahead of Obama 50 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent undecided, and a 3 point margin of error. The issue of the economy has clearly been breaking in Clinton’s favor, according to this poll. Fifty-seven percent of voters cite it as the top issue in the campaign and Clinton leads among them 52 percent to 43 percent. Fifty-seven percent of Ohio Democrats said that NAFTA had been a bad deal for the country, and Clinton leads Obama among those by a bare 49 percent to 46 percent.
Public Policy Polling has Clinton ahead of Obama 51 to 42 percent with a 2.9 percent margin of error. Undecideds are 6 percent. Clinton leads 67 percent to 30 percent among Hispanic voters (29 percent of the sample) and 58 percent to 37 percent among white voters (45 percent of the sample) while Obama leads 78 percent to 13 percent among black voters (22 percent of the sample). Both run pretty evently among all age groups except those over 65 where Clinton has a big lead.The poll was conducted Mar. 1-2.
SurveyUSA has Clinton ahead of Obama 54 percent to 44 percent with a 3.4 percent margin of error in a poll taken March 1-2. Like some of the other polls, both run fairly evenly among all age groups except those over 65 who heavily favor Clinton. The same heavy edges Clinton has among white voters and Obama among black voters prevail in this poll too. The issue on which there is the biggest gap between the candidates is health care where Clinton leads 61 percent to 37 percent.
– A Suffolk University poll conducted March 1-2 has Clinton ahead of Obama 52 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent. “Hillary Clinton may be carried to victory on the backs of the Buckeye State’s older white males,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Although Clinton carried women and Obama carried men overall, it appears that Obama’s weak support from older men may make the difference.”
Quinnipiac says Clinton’s lead in Ohio has “shrunk” to 49 percent to 45 percent over Obama. The Feb. 27- March 2 poll had a 3.5 percent margin of error. Clinton leads among women 55 percent to 39 percent while Obama leads among men by the same margin. Clinton leads 64 percent to 30 percent among white voters while Obama takes 90 percent of black voters. “The big unknown is turnout. It’s not just whether it is higher than normal, which everyone expects it to be,” said Peter Brown of Quinnipac. “The key question is whether turnout is disproportionately higher among some demographic groups than others.”
Zogby has Obama ahead of Clinton 47 to 45 percent in Ohio with a 3.6 percent margin of error in a poll conducted Feb. 29- Mar. 2. There are no surprises here in terms of trends among demographic groups. Obama leads Clinton among men, Clinton leads Obama among women; Obama is stronger with voters under 50, Clinton is stronger with voters over 50. Among Republicans, McCain leads Huckabee 61 percent to 28 percent.