Analyzing The Demographics In November Match-Ups

Posted February 28, 2008 at 10:56am

Read the full USA Today/Gallup analysis

Gallup parsed through its polling for Feb. 21-24 to see what kinds of differences there’d be in support among different demographic groups for the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates depending on whether it was Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton running against John McCain.

Here is what Gallup found:

– There would be a bigger gender gap in a McCain-Clinton contest because men are much more likely to support McCain than Clinton. Clinton’s 51 percent to 45 percent edge among women over McCain is not much larger than Obama’s 49 percent to 45 percent advantage, but McCain leads Clinton among men by 15 points compared to only 5 points for Obama.
– Younger voters are likely to prefer the Democratic candidate but the choice of Obama would widen that gap. Obama outruns McCain among the 18-to-29 age group by 67 percent to 28 percent. Clinton’s lead in this group is 55 percent to 40 percent. The second biggest gap would be among voters over 65 in a McCain-Obama match-up, in which McCain is on top 57 percent to 35 percent.
– The biggest difference in the match-ups when it comes to level of education would be in a McCain-Obama race where McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 37 percent among voters who did not attend college.
– On candidate characteristics – experience, the issues, and leadership/vision – Clinton and McCain are about tied on experience and leadership/vision, but he leads her on the issues. Obama and McCain are tied or close on issues and leadership/vision, but he outpolls Obama on the experience measure by 65 percent to 28 percent
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