Obama Leads Clinton In Two National Polls, But By Different Margins

Posted February 20, 2008 at 3:05pm

Two national polls are out today with the same leader on the Democratic side – Barack Obama – but significantly different takes on what the size of his lead is. Rasmussen Reports has polls out on hypothetical general election match-ups in the key states of Ohio and Michigan.

The Gallup daily tracking poll has Barack Obama back to a 5 point lead over Hillary Clinton, following yesterday’s survey which had him ahead only 46 percent to 45 percent with a 3 point margin of error. Prior to that, Obama’s lead had been in the 5 to 7 point range in the previous three surveys. This poll was conducted Feb.17-19, before the results of Wisconsin were known. Not much change on the Republican side where John McCain still holds a big lead over Mike Huckabee.

Obama built a big 52 percent to 38 percent lead over Clinton in a Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Feb.13-16, before Obama scored yet another primary victory with his win in Wisconsin. Other polls have been showing that Obama is making inroads into key voting blocs that had been strong for Clinton, and in this poll, John Zogby notes in particular that Obama is now leading Clinton among the 50-to-64 baby boomers by 57 percent to 29 percent. He is also now tied with Clinton among women voters at 44 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

Among Republicans, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee by a comfortable 47 percent to 32 percent but among the 17 percent of the Republican sample that consider themselves “very conservative,” Huckabee leads McCain 51 percent to 29 percent.

In the poll’s general election match-ups, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 40 percent while McCain bests Clinton 50 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent.

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted Feb.17 has McCain in a statistical tie with Obama, leading him 42 percent to 41 percent with a 4.5 percent margin of error. McCain leads Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent. For Michigan, Rasmussen says Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 39 percent, and that a Clinton-McCain race right now is a tie at 44 percent. Same margin of error and polling date as Ohio.