Clinton Has Big Leads In Ohio and Penn., Wisconsin Looks Close

Posted February 14, 2008 at 3:56pm

Read the Quinnipiac University poll

Quinnipiac University’s swing state poll shows Hillary Clinton with big leads over Barack Obama in states she is looking to as “firewalls” – Ohio on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22. However, the poll was conducted Feb.6-12, before Obama’s big wins in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. And Peter Brown of Quinnipiac notes, “In some of the earlier contests Obama has closed similar gaps and gone on to win.”

The poll shows Clinton leading Obama 55 percent to 34 percent in Ohio and 52 percent to 36 percent in Pennsylvania. Democrats in each state cite the economy as the top campaign issue (32 percent in Ohio, 27 percent in Pennsylvania) while Iraq is second in each state, 16 percent and 19 percent respectively. Health care comes in third. The Ohio margin of error is 2.3 percent and for Pennsylvania, it’s 2.6 percent.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Feb.13, after the Potomac Primaries, shows Clinton ahead of Obama 51 percent to 37 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error. The economy was named the top issue by 53 percent of Democrats with Iraq second at 18 percent.

In Wisconsin where voters go to the polls Tuesday, Rasmussen says that the race is shaping up to be competitive with Obama ahead of Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error. A quarter of the voters say they may yet change their minds.

A Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday had Obama ahead in Wisconsin 50 percent to 39 percent, while a SurveyUSA poll had Clinton ahead in Ohio 56 percent to 39 percent.

Quinnipiac did a hypothetical general election match-up for Florida, finding John McCain ahead of both Clinton and Obama, but within the survey’s 3.1 percent margin of error. The figures were McCain over Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent and leading Obama 41 percent to 39 percent. Quinnipiac’s sizing-up of the general election match-ups in Florida generally mirrors what national polls have found. The poll also asked if voters were disenchanted enough with President Bush to take it out on McCain, by not voting for him. The answer? No, by a 68 percent to 23 percent margin.

On the subject of general election match-ups, a Zogby poll conducted Feb.8-11 said Obama would beat McCain 47 percent to 36 percent while Clinton would lose to McCain 42 percent to 37 percent. The margin of error is 1.2 percent. But it should be noted that about one-fifth of voters in each match-up dcescribed themselves as undecided.