California Blues

Posted February 7, 2008 at 6:29pm

Our round-ups of pre-Super Tuesday state polls noted a couple of times that Zogby International differed with several other polls on the California race. Zogby’s polls had Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton, and Mitt Romney ahead of John McCain. The Field Poll, which specializes in California, had a close Clinton-Obama race showing Clinton ahead by 36 percent to 34 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin of error but, unlike Zogby, put McCain ahead of Romney 32 percent to 24 percent.

John Zogby posted this note today:

>” **About California**: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.”

Zogby also posted a report card on his other Super Tuesday polls.