McCain Ahead in California (Maybe), Florida Remains Tight

Posted January 29, 2008 at 12:20am

A CNN/Opinion Research poll , conducted Jan. 23-27, shows John McCain leading Mitt Romney 39 percent to 26 percent in California, a 19 point jump from McCain compared to two weeks ago. Romney also gained, rising 10 points. Rudy Giuliani has 13 percent and Mike Huckabee 11 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent. But in a USA Today/Gallup poll that we reported earlier, the McCain-Romney race was closer. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 49 percent to 32 percent, with 11 percent for John Edwards. But more than 80 percent of the Democratic voters were interviewed before the results were known of the South Carolina primary, and all of them before the Ted Kennedy endorsement of Obama.

In Florida which votes Tuesday, an American Research Group poll shows the same thing as five other polls on Monday – a tight race. Romney leads McCain 34 percent to 32 percent with a 4 point margin of error. Giuliani is at 12 percent and Huckabee at 11 percent.

And a SurveyUSA poll says “it is impossible to tell” who will win in Florida on Tuesday.