Clinton, McCain Lead Nationally, GOP California Contest Up In Air

Posted January 14, 2008 at 8:53pm

A new national poll by USA/Today Gallup puts John McCain and Hillary Clinton out in front, and a survey of California – the biggest prize in the Feb. 5 mega-primary – roughly mirrors the national result, although with the caveat that a huge chunk of voters on the Republican side in the state are undecided.

John McCain and Rudy Giuliani have “essentially swapped positions” in the GOP race, according to the USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Jan 10-13.McCain has 33 percent while Giuliani has dropped to third with 13 percent since Gallup’s mid-December poll. Mike Huckabee is second with 19 percent, a shade higher than he was before Iowa and New Hampshire weighed in, and Mitt Romney has 13 percent. Fred Thompson has sunk to 9 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 33 percent, slightly less than her 18 point December lead, although her support has remained the same while Obama has edged up. John Edwards, who rose to 20 percent in December, has slipped back to 13 percent. The margin of error is 3 percent.

The headline for California in a CNN/L.A. Times/ Politico poll is that a solid majority (61 percent) have yet to make up their minds. Things are clearer among the Democrats where Clinton is in the lead.

The poll, conducted Jan. 11-13, shows 61 percent of likely Republican primary voters are not certain of their choice. McCain leads with 20 percent, Romney has 16 percent, Giuliani is at 14 percent and Huckabee at 13 percent. Bringing up the rear is Ron Paul at 8 percent and Thompson at 6 percent. Margin of error was 6 percent.

On the Democratic side, Clinton shows support of 37 percent of likely Democratic voters, followed by Barack Obama at 31 percent and Edwards at 10 percent. Margin of error is 5 percent.