Most N.H. Polls Show Close Dem Race, McCain Strength
Most polls in New Hampshire released today and last night after our last Poll Tracker round-up show Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a close race just two days before the first-in-the-nation primary, and John McCain running strongly in the GOP race, although some surveys also say that Mitt Romney is holding his own. Here are the top lines of the latest polls:
– **Rasmussen Reports:** In the GOP race, McCain holds a 32 percent to 30 percent lead over Romney, with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul at 11 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 9 percent and Fred Thompson at 4 percent. Romney holds a slight edge against McCain among conservatives while McCain has a wide lead among moderates. Republicans also see McCain as the most electable in a general election. On the Democratic side, Obama leads Clinton 37 percent to 29 percent, with John Edwards at 18 percent, Bill Richardson at 8 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 3 percent. Democrats see Obama as the most electable candidate in the general election. Both surveys were taken after the Iowa caucus but before Saturday night’s debates.
– **Concord Monitor/Research 2000:**
In a survey conducted post-Iowa, McCain doubled his support since mid-December and now leads Romney 35 percent to 29 percent. Mike Huckabee clocked in at 13 percent with everyone else in single digits. Among Democrats, Obama led Clinton 34 percent to 33 percent with John Edwards at 23 percent, Bill Richardson at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 3 percent. The margin of error is 5 percent.
Clinton and Obama are tied at 33 percent with Edwards at 20 percent. The poll anointed McCain as the frontrunner with a 33 percent to 27 percent lead over Romney. Rudy Giuliani had 14 percent, Huckabee 11 percent and Ron Paul 9 percent. The margin of error was 5 percent. This also was entirely a post-Iowa sample.
The sample for this poll was split 50-50 in terms of interviews conducted before and after the Iowa results were known. Clinton leads Obama 32 percent to 31 percent with Edwards third at 20 percent. Richardson had 7 percent. But not only are the Clinton-Obama numbers within the 3.4 percent margin of error, Obama has been moving upwards in each of these polls. On The GOP side, Romney and McCain are essentially tied with Romney at 32 percent to McCain’s 31 percent. Huckabee has 12 percent, Giuliani 7 percent, Paul 6 percent and Fred Thompson 3 percent.
– **7News/Suffolk University:**
Clinton leads Obama 35 percent to 33 percent but this poll shows the momentum clearly on Obama’s side, given that he lagged by 17 points in an earlier survey. Edwards had 14 percent. On the GOP side, Romney leads McCain 30 percent to 27 percent, followed by Giuliani at 10 percent, Paul at 9 percent and Huckabee at 7 percent. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday and has a 4.38 percent margin of error.
– **MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon:** Only partially conducted after Iowa, the poll gives McCain a big lead over Romney, 32 percent to 24 percent. A month ago, Romney was at 25 percent and McCain at 16 percent. Huckabee has 12 percent, Giuliani 10 percent and Paul 8 percent. Obama leads Clinton 33 percent to 31 percent with Edwards at 17 percent. Richardson has 7 percent.