New Polls Show Tight Races In Iowa And N.H., And Good News For McCain
In a round-up of polls that have come out so far today, the biggest headline is that John McCain has rebounded in New Hampshire to make it a close race on the GOP side in the nation’s first primary, and he has also made a big comeback in a new national poll. Hillary Clinton commands a big lead nationally over Barack Obama, but in Iowa and New Hampshire, the contest between them remains close.
On the eve of the caucus, a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby says the Democratic race is tightening again with Clinton and Obama tied at 28 percent with John Edwards at 26 percent. Among Republicans, Mike Huckabee leads Mitt Romney 28 percent to 26 percent, within the 3.3 percent margin of error. McCain and Fred Thompson are tied at 12 percent, followed by Ron Paul at 9 percent and Rudy Giuliani at 7 percent.
> Rasmussen Reports offers up this cautionary note to poll watchers: “Those who want pre-caucus polls to tell them who will in Iowa are sure to be sorely disappointed.” Rasmussen notes that eight polls have been released in Iowa in the last week, with split results for the top tier candidates. Rasmussen recalled the results from 2004, when five polls released in the last week showed Democrat John Kerry ranging from 21 percent to 26 percent, slightly ahead of Howard Dean or statistically neck-and-neck with him. Kerry went on to pick up 37.6 percent of the delegates.
– **New Hampshire:**
The CNN/WMUR poll says McCain has caught up to Romney for the first time in this poll, conducted Dec. 27-30, matching him for the Republican lead at 29 percent. Since mid-December, he gained seven points and Romney slipped by five. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 34 percent to 30 percent, within the margin of error. John Edwards stands at 17 percent with all others in single digits.
Rudy Giuliani’s once solid lead among Republicans nationwide has vanished, and John McCain — whose campaign was regarded as dead in the water this summer — is back on top with the GOP leaders. McCain has 22 percent support among Republicans, followed by Giuliani at 20 percent and Mike Huckabee at 17 percent, according to the Pew Research Center. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton maintains her large national lead over Barack Obama, 46 percent to 26 percent, with John Edwards at 14 percent.