Clinton “Firewall” Cracking In New Hampshire

Posted December 12, 2007 at 10:21am

Much has been written about New Hampshire being Hillary Clinton’s firewall if she loses in the Iowa caucuses to Barack Obama. But a new CNN/WMUR poll now shows her in a statistical tie with Obama in the first primary state. Clinton’s support is at 31 percent compared to Obama’s 30 percent. As for the Republicans, Mike Huckabee may be catching fire nationally and in Iowa, but he is in single digits in New Hampshire with Mitt Romney still on top with 32 percent followed by Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, tied at 19 percent.

In a new Rasmussen Reports poll of New Hampshire, Obama is ahead of Clinton 31 percent to 28 percent. There was little change for the other Democrats. John Edwards now attracts 17 percent support, Bill Richardson 8 percent, Joe Biden 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich 3 percent. Mike Gravel and Chris Dodd split a point between them and 7 percent are undecided. Rasmussen says, “One of the great challenges in polling for the New Hampshire Primary is determining who will show up and vote…Among voters who are “certain” they will vote on January 8, Obama leads Clinton 31 percent to 27 percent with John Edwards at 18 percent.”

Back in Iowa, the Rasmussen survey still has the Democratic contest too close to call, with Clinton at 29 percent and Obama at 26 percent, a difference that is exactly the margin of error. Edwards has slipped several points to 22 percent and all the others are in single digits.