Republicans, Democrats In Dead-Heat In Iowa; Clinton, Romney Ahead In N.H.

Posted December 5, 2007 at 12:12pm

Read the full Zogby Poll

Less than a month before the first votes are cast, Democrats and Republicans are essentially in a dead heat in the caucus state of Iowa. Clinton leads the Democrats with 27 percent, followed closely by Barack Obama at 24 percent and John Edwards at 21 percent. The Zogby survey also tested who would be the second choice of caucus-goers if their first choices stumbled – a key element of the caucus process – and found that among those who make Obama their first choice, Edwards is their second choice, and vice versa. Among those who make Clinton their first choice, Obama is the favorite second choice.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is narrowly ahead of Mike Huckabee by 26 percent to 25 percent with Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson way down at 12 percent and eight percent respectively.

The story is different in New Hampshire where Clinton has a 32 percent to 21 percent lead over Obama, but she has slipped six points since September. Edwards is in third at 16 percent with all others in single digits. Similarly, in the GOP race, Romney leads with 35 percent, with John McCain second at 17 percent and Giuliani, after edging up in September, falling back to 15 percent. Huckabee polls 10 percent with all others in single digits.

Other findings:

– Democrats in these two early states – where voters are far better acquainted with the candidates on a personal level than the rest of the country – are much more convinced than their GOP counterparts that their nominee will win the White house in the 2008 presidential election

– Both Democrats and Republicans said they were angry with the political system in America, meaning candidates on both sides of the aisle will be making their last-minute pitches to a less-than-welcoming electorate.

The Iowa poll was taken Nov.29- Dec.1 and has a 4.4 percent margin of error. The New Hampshire poll was conducted Dec 1-3 and has roughly the same margin of error.