New Mexico: Early October Poll Had Chavez and Wilson Tied

Posted October 29, 2007 at 6:20pm

A poll conducted recently for the Senate campaign of Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez (D) showed him narrowly beating Rep. Heather Wilson (R) in a hypothetical Senate matchup.

The survey, conducted by Lake Research Partners, had Chavez in front of Wilson 41 percent to 40 percent, with 19 percent undecided. The poll found Chavez leading Wilson among independent voters 48 percent to 30 percent.

The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Oct. 8-11 and had an error margin of 4.9 points.

“Coming off of a bruising Congressional run last cycle, and with the cloud of the Gonzalez-U.S. Attorneys scandal still hanging over her head, Wilson’s image has grown decidedly more negative,” a memo accompanying the Chavez poll said.

Chavez is running to replace retiring Sen. Pete Domenici (R). He is facing wealthy developer Don Wiviott in the Democratic primary.

Wilson’s primary opponent is Rep. Steve Pearce (R).

Among the Chavez poll’s other findings:

• Of the 41 percent of respondents who said they would vote for Chavez over Wilson, 34 percent said they strongly support the mayor. Of the 40 percent who said they would vote for Wilson, 28 percent said they feel similarly about the Congresswoman.

• Wilson’s favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 48 percent to 38 percent, with 53 percent of respondents saying she is doing a “just fair” or “poor” job in her current position. Thirty-six percent of respondents gave her a job- approval rating of “excellent” to “good.”

• Chavez’s favorable rating was at 46 percent, with 22 percent seeing him in an unfavorable light and 45 percent saying he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as mayor. Thirty-three percent of respondents gave Chavez a negative job-approval rating.

— David M. Drucker