After three consecutive competitive Senate elections in Massachusetts, it looks like we’re in for a dry spell.
Rep. Edward J. Markey, a Democrat, won the June 25 special election by a convincing 10 points, and there is little evidence he will be vulnerable when the seat is up again in November 2014.
Even though the situations are not completely analogous, former Sen. Scott P. Brown’s 2010 special election victory followed by his 8-point loss in the 2012 election demonstrates the difficult task ahead for the GOP in the Bay State.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry Moran of Kansas seemed to leave the door open to a GOP challenge to Markey next year.
“Today marks the end of the first mile in the marathon to permanently fill the Massachusetts Senate seat. Gabriel Gomez is well prepared to win that marathon over the next 16 months,” Moran said in an Election Night press release.
But even if Gomez runs again, he would face many of the same challenges. Massachusetts remains a Democratic-leaning state and outside GOP groups that ignored his special election bid are likely to focus on other targets in more friendly states, rather than assisting the retired Navy SEAL.
“Democrats may have won this round, but it came at a massive cost on friendly turf,” Moran added. “The same cannot be said in Louisiana, West Virginia, South Dakota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Montana, Alaska, Michigan, Iowa, and New Hampshire.”
Those are precisely the states where the fight for the Senate will be held next year — not in Massachusetts.
The initial rating for the 2014 race is Currently Safe for Democrats in the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings.