Many people were writing Democrat Pat Quinn’s political obituary in 2010 just before he was elected governor of Illinois with 47 percent of the vote. Four years later, Quinn's re-election bid is in rough shape.
Public polling in the race has been spotty and from less-than-reliable outfits. But private polling at the statewide and congressional district level also shows the governor is unpopular, particularly outside of Chicago.
There is some concern Quinn's poor standing could hurt the re-election efforts of Democratic Reps. Brad Schneider, Bill Foster, Bill Enyart, and Cheri Bustos — all targets of national Republicans.
Democrats' best strategy appears to be to turn GOP nominee Bruce Rauner, a wealthy businessman, into “Mitt Romney on steroids.” It could work, but to call this race a tossup right now would be understating Quinn’s standing in the race.
We’re changing the Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call rating of the race from pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican, giving the GOP a narrow advantage to capture the state in November.