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Stuart Rothenberg


Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan, nonideological political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns. He is also a twice-a-week columnist for Roll Call. His column covers campaigns, elections, presidential politics and current political developments.

He holds a B.A. from Colby College (Waterville, Maine) and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Connecticut. He has taught at Bucknell University (Lewisburg, Pennsylvania) and at the Catholic University of America (Washington, D.C.).

A frequent soundbite, Stu has appeared on Meet the Press, This Week, Face the Nation, the NewsHour, Nightline and many other television programs. He is often quoted in the nation's major media, and his op-eds have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and other newspapers.

Stu served during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles as an analyst for the NewsHour on PBS. During the 2006 cycle, he was a political analyst for CBS News. Prior to that, he was a political analyst for CNN for over a decade, including election nights from 1992 through 2004. He has also done on-air analysis for the Voice of America.

He is married, has two children and lives in Potomac, Md.

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Stories by Stuart Rothenberg:

Friday's Numbers: Does Anybody Still Care?

Oct. 3, 2012

A few months ago, I expected this Friday to be a crucial day in the presidential race. After all, it would be the day when September's unemployment and new jobs numbers would be released, right in the heart of the contest.

Democratic Surge in House Races? Not So Fast

Oct. 1, 2012

Conservative thinker William Kristol and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee usually don't see things the same way, but they seem to agree that the House of Representatives is "in play."

Eight House Incumbents to Watch for Clues

Sept. 21, 2012

Looking for clues about November? If so, you might keep your eyes on a handful of House incumbents seeking re-election. Their fate could tell you a great deal about the mood of the voters, the ability of candidates to separate themselves from the top of the ticket and the importance of individual candidates and campaigns.

In Politics, Expect the Unexpected

Sept. 19, 2012

I was on a panel at an event in the nation's capital Sept. 10. The subject was the elections, and another panelist and I discussed the race for the White House and the fight for control of Congress.

'State Waves' and the Fight for the Senate

Sept. 12, 2012

While there is no evidence that a national partisan wave will develop between now and Nov. 6, there is every reason to expect a number of "state waves" that will prove to be challenging for some candidates - and for political handicappers.

Both Parties Roll the Dice on Medicare Issue

Sept. 10, 2012

Democrats started licking their chops moments after Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced that he had selected Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan to be his running mate.

The Iowa Straw Poll and the National Political Conventions

Sept. 3, 2012

Did last week's Republican Convention spell the beginning of the end for national political conventions, at least in their current form? I'm not certain, but it should.

What a 2004 Poll Tells Us About 2012

Aug. 27, 2012

Eight years ago, right before Republicans gathered in New York City from Aug. 30 to Sept. 2 to renominate President George W. Bush for a second term, a newly released NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed Bush vulnerable and in a dogfight against his challenger, a Massachusetts Democrat.

On a Run of Strong Congressional Candidates

Aug. 3, 2012

I’m not sure whether it’s the summer heat, a side effect of the aging process or simply dumb luck, but I’ve met a string of unusually good Congressional candidates recently.

Polls or Fundamentals in N.Y. 1st District Race?

Aug. 1, 2012

I have been watching New York’s 1st district since I came to Washington, D.C., in 1980. The suburban district on the east end of Long Island has often had competitive races and has flipped from one party to the other a number of times during the past 30 years.

Cruz Versus Dewhurst: More Than a Primary

July 30, 2012

Today’s Texas Republican Senate runoff between Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz is more than a mere primary. The winner, after all, is certain to win the seat of retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in November.

Voter Overload and the Presidential Endgame

July 25, 2012

It’s not news that voters in presidential swing state media markets are being bombarded with political ads on television.

Two Freshmen to Watch in the Class of 2012

July 23, 2012

In a political world increasingly populated by candidates who seem angry at the political opposition and promise to toe their party’s ideological line, two open-seat candidates I met recently cut interesting profiles.

In Fight for the House, the Trajectory Is Clear

July 18, 2012

House races often don’t start getting attention until after Labor Day. But with the presidential contest sucking the air out of the political environment and defining the electoral landscape, House candidates may find they have an even harder time than usual defining themselves and their opponents.

How Can Anyone Govern After This Campaign?

July 16, 2012

Those of us who have been reporting on and discussing politics for the past few decades have come to expect rough-and-tumble campaigns. As Chicago writer Finley Peter Dunne once observed: “Politics ain’t beanbag.”

Conventions: From Meaningful to Meaningless

July 11, 2012

Rarely a day goes by without some journalist noting that another Member of Congress is passing up the very forgettable opportunity of attending his or her party’s convention later this summer.

Wisconsin Senate Race Will Be Test of Political Mood

July 9, 2012

Wisconsin has drawn plenty of attention recently, first because of the recall election of Gov. Scott Walker (R) and then because it is one of a handful of swing states in the 2012 presidential election.

Congressional Democrats’ Pennsylvania Problem

June 27, 2012

As Democrats struggle to net 25 seats and win back the House majority in November, no single state reflects the party’s challenges more than Pennsylvania.

2012 Candidates: the Good, the Bad, the Ugly

June 25, 2012

While I interview more than a hundred candidates each election cycle, I don’t evaluate them the way the average politically interested observer does. I don’t care about their ideology or their views on issues — except to the extent that their views make it easier or harder for them to get elected.

Senate Majority Still Up for Grabs in November

June 20, 2012

A slew of retirements and a changing presidential election landscape have made for some ups and downs for the two parties in this year’s fight for the Senate. But the basic contours of the cycle remain the same: The Senate is up for grabs in November.

Barack Obama the Underdog Against ‘Change’ Slogan

June 18, 2012

Back in October, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating stood at 44 percent in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey and only 17 percent of voters said that things in the country were “generally headed in the right direction.” Those numbers suggested that the president would lose re-election unless he was able to change the direction of public opinion.

Swing States, Battlegrounds and the 2012 Map

June 13, 2012

Everyone has an opinion about swing states. I figured it was time to explain how I see the presidential map.

Reflections on 20 Years as Accidental Columnist

June 11, 2012

Twenty years ago this week, my first column appeared in the pages of Roll Call. I had no intention of becoming a columnist or working for a newspaper, and I certainly had no expectation that two decades after my first column appeared in print I’d still be writing for Roll Call.

Can Any of These House Underdogs Survive?

June 6, 2012

If any of these five House incumbents survive, it will surprise most dispassionate observers (including some in their own parties). But upsets happen, and each of these candidates has a scenario for victory.

What’s Different About the New ‘New Right’?

June 4, 2012

Thirty-five years ago, just before I came to the nation’s capital, a political force emerged nationally and in Washington, D.C.

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