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Stuart Rothenberg


Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan, nonideological political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns. He is also a twice-a-week columnist for Roll Call. His column covers campaigns, elections, presidential politics and current political developments.

He holds a B.A. from Colby College (Waterville, Maine) and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Connecticut. He has taught at Bucknell University (Lewisburg, Pennsylvania) and at the Catholic University of America (Washington, D.C.).

A frequent soundbite, Stu has appeared on Meet the Press, This Week, Face the Nation, the NewsHour, Nightline and many other television programs. He is often quoted in the nation's major media, and his op-eds have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and other newspapers.

Stu served during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles as an analyst for the NewsHour on PBS. During the 2006 cycle, he was a political analyst for CBS News. Prior to that, he was a political analyst for CNN for over a decade, including election nights from 1992 through 2004. He has also done on-air analysis for the Voice of America.

He is married, has two children and lives in Potomac, Md.

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Stories by Stuart Rothenberg:

Obama's New Political Reality Is Bad News for Dems in 2014

May 14, 2013

Forget background checks and gun control, divisions within the GOP on immigration, and Republican intransigence on negotiating a budget deal with the president. The current triple play of Benghazi, the IRS and now the Justice Department’s seizure of journalists’ phone records has the potential to be a political game changer for 2014.

A GOP Senate Switch in South Dakota Looks More Likely

May 14, 2013

Former Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s announcement that she is passing on a Senate race in 2014, combined with secondhand reports that U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson (son of retiring South Dakota Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson) has also decided against a Senate bid, must have put big smiles on the faces of Republican strategists.

Alaska Senate Poll: Far, Far Less Than Meets the Eye

May 13, 2013

A Harper Polling survey conducted for the Tea Party Leadership Fund, an obscure conservative group that has supported Georgia Republican Rep. Paul Broun and Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul, is one of those polls probably meant for fundraising and little else.

Ted Cruz for President? Not So Fast | Rothenberg

May 13, 2013

When a former GOP governor asked me the other day whether he would see another Republican elected to the White House in his lifetime, I asked him exactly how old he was.

Massachusetts Senate Special-Election Race Still Looks Tight

May 12, 2013

A new poll conducted for Republican Gabriel Gomez’s campaign shows Gomez trailing Democratic Rep. Edward J. Markey by just 3 points.

Obama Administration Heading for a Tough Few Weeks

May 11, 2013

Maybe it’s because two-term presidents suffer from hubris, or merely that after an administration has been in office for years, it inevitably makes mistakes (and too often tries to cover them up). But recent news reports ought to make Democrats at least a little nervous about the next few months and even 2014.

Partisanship Ruled in South Carolina Special Election

May 8, 2013

Mark Sanford’s victory in the special election in South Carolina’s 1st District tell us little new about the 2014 elections. But it does serve as a reminder about one important factor in American politics that shouldn’t be ignored when the midterms roll around: partisanship.

Virginia Governor Poll: Not Meaningless, but Not Important

May 7, 2013

The recent Washington Post poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race showed Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli leading former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe by 5 points among registered voters (46 percent to 41 percent) and by 10 points among likely voters (51 percent to 41 percent).

Ranking Potential Flips for 2014 House Rematches

May 6, 2013

It’s looking as if we may see more than a dozen House race rematches in 2014. While some of them are likely to have the same outcomes as in 2012, others could easily flip party control. Here is my initial list of potential rematch flips, with the first contests listed more likely to flip and the last ones less likely.

History Lessons and the 2014 Midterms

May 3, 2013

Sean Trende of joins the growing chorus of political handicappers who have been arguing that we aren’t likely to see a partisan wave next cycle. Trende’s analysis, which also addresses the “six-year itch,” is spot on (as it usually is).

Parties Prepare to Spin Colbert Busch Win

May 2, 2013

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the party’s super PAC, the House Majority PAC, have spent well over half a million dollars in an effort to win a special election in South Carolina’s 1st District, a reliably Republican seat that is competitive only because Republicans nominated controversial former Gov. Mark Sanford.

Don't Write Off Massachusetts Senate Race Just Yet

May 1, 2013

The Senate special election in Massachusetts took an interesting turn this week, when former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez drew more than 50 percent of the vote to win the GOP nomination.

Is Long-term Economic, Political Discontent Ahead?

April 29, 2013

Washington Post columnist Robert J. Samuelson is one of a handful of economic writers I pay a lot of attention to. If you are a political junkie, you should read his April 28 piece The Twilight of Entitlement, which has profound implications for American politics and for the nation’s psyche.

PA 13’s Daylin Leach: Liberal but Not Angry

April 26, 2013

Daylin Leach, who is running for the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania’s open 13th Congressional District (currently held by gubernatorial hopeful Rep. Allyson Y. Schwartz), doesn’t run from the liberal label.

GOP Throwing Another Race Away, Mark Sanford Style

April 24, 2013

Republicans are on quite a streak when it comes to throwing away elections.

Baucus Exit Turns Montana Senate Race Into Tossup

April 23, 2013

The announcement that Montana Democrat Max Baucus is retiring shakes up the fight for the Senate in 2014 more than a bit.

The He Said, She Said of Gun Control: Get Over It | Rothenberg

April 22, 2013

The deep disappointment coming from the White House, gun control advocates and the parents of Newtown, Conn., at the demise of the Manchin-Toomey Senate compromise gun bill is understandable. But some of the rhetoric following the amendment’s defeat has been over the top.

Putting First-Quarter Senate Fundraising Into Perspective

April 22, 2013

For political junkies in a nonelection year, the release of quarterly fundraising reports by incumbents and potential candidates provides one of the few moments of true delight. After all, the reports are filled with numbers, giving us quantitative measures of fundraising strength and potential electoral success.

Landrieu’s Gun Vote: A Possible Political Explanation

April 19, 2013

Three red-state Democratic senators up for re-election next year – Alaska’s Mark Begich, Arkansas’ Mark Pryor and Montana’s Max Baucus – voted against the gun control measure offered by Sens. Joe Manchin III, D-W.Va., and Patrick J. Toomey, R-Pa., but not Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu.

How Will Divided Attention Affect Obama, Congress?

April 17, 2013

Not much going on these days, huh? There are only a few things on the president’s — and Congress’ — plate, including:

Bob Perry: Present at the Creation of a Political Movement

April 17, 2013

Reports about the recent death of millionaire home builder and Republican donor Bob Perry, 80, have noted his financial support for George W. Bush and Rick Perry during their campaigns for governor of Texas, and his financial bankrolling of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which took on Democrat John Kerry during his 2004 campaign for the White House.

Steve King's Cash Raises Eyebrows, Doubts About Senate Bid

April 16, 2013

Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, is mentioned often as a possible 2014 Senate candidate for retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin’s seat. But if King’s first-quarter 2013 fundraising report is any indication, the conservative Republican isn’t headed for a statewide race.

Rothenberg: The Most Vulnerable House Incumbent(s) of 2014

April 15, 2013

Last week, I discussed the most vulnerable senator seeking re-election. It was a tough call, but clearly came down to two Southern Democrats. This week, the question is who is the House’s most vulnerable incumbent, and the answer is much, much easier.

Cook's Partisan Voting Index and the Decline of the Swing District

April 12, 2013

Every political reporter, campaign professional and political junkie should read Charlie Cook’s most recent National Journal column on the decline of swing congressional districts and the rise of partisanship. (I am certain some credit for the analysis also goes to David Wasserman over at the Cook Political Report.)

Five Takeaways From the New NBC/WSJ Poll

April 11, 2013

A few observations on the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll:

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