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Stuart Rothenberg


Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan, nonideological political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns. He is also a twice-a-week columnist for Roll Call. His column covers campaigns, elections, presidential politics and current political developments.

He holds a B.A. from Colby College (Waterville, Maine) and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Connecticut. He has taught at Bucknell University (Lewisburg, Pennsylvania) and at the Catholic University of America (Washington, D.C.).

A frequent soundbite, Stu has appeared on Meet the Press, This Week, Face the Nation, the NewsHour, Nightline and many other television programs. He is often quoted in the nation's major media, and his op-eds have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and other newspapers.

Stu served during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles as an analyst for the NewsHour on PBS. During the 2006 cycle, he was a political analyst for CBS News. Prior to that, he was a political analyst for CNN for over a decade, including election nights from 1992 through 2004. He has also done on-air analysis for the Voice of America.

He is married, has two children and lives in Potomac, Md.

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Stories by Stuart Rothenberg:

Why Emasculating the Speaker Is Rarely a Good Idea

June 13, 2013

They’re at it again.

When the Nation Has the Blahs ...

June 10, 2013

Is the nation suffering from a national case of hypochondria, or are Americans rightly worried about the country’s future?

National Democrats Buy Airtime in Massachusetts Senate Special Election

June 6, 2013

Republican strategists who monitor media activity in Massachusetts say the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has purchased TV time, starting tomorrow, to help Rep. Edward J. Markey in the special election for Senate.

Pollster Breaches Thin Line in LA Mayoral Campaign

June 5, 2013

Politics is a rough-and-tumble business, with campaigns bringing whatever resources they can to the table. But are there limits to what consultants, particularly pollsters, should do for their clients?

New Jersey Senate Remains Safe for Democrats in Long Term

June 3, 2013

For the first time in more than 30 years, there will likely be a Republican senator from New Jersey.

Two Democratic House Challengers Worth Watching

June 3, 2013

Democratic prospects of taking back the House in 2014 may be remote, but two Democratic congressional challengers I interviewed recently have the potential to knock off GOP incumbents next year. At the very least, their races are worth watching.

The Bachmann District: When a Retirement Changes Everything

May 30, 2013

That’s the next to the last paragraph in a very fine story written by Roll Call political reporter Emily Cahn about GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann’s retirement from Minnesota’s 6th District.

Are Republicans Completely on Board With Gabriel Gomez?

May 30, 2013

Republican strategists both associated with and independent of GOP nominee Gabriel Gomez’s campaign are growing increasingly frustrated by what they see as the unwillingness of establishment donors and conservative activists to get fully behind the candidacy of the first-time candidate for Massachusetts Senate.

Nebraska Senate: Osborn Likely to Announce Candidacy Soon

May 28, 2013

Former Nebraska Treasurer Shane Osborn is likely to announce his candidacy for the Senate within the next few days, according to usually reliable GOP insiders.

Friendly Fire: Parties Slam Some of Their Own

May 24, 2013

The National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee each blasted the other side after a near party-line vote on the Smarter Solutions for Students Act, which passed the House on Thursday, 221-198.

Senate Ratings Changes: The Political Environment Turns on Democrats

May 22, 2013

While national polls haven’t shown a shift in the public’s opinion of President Barack Obama’s performance, recent controversies have, in my view, significantly changed the political landscape.

Todd Akin, Virginia Style?

May 21, 2013

Until Saturday night, I had never heard of E.W. Jackson, a Harvard Law School graduate and minister who served three years in the Marine Corps and attended Harvard Divinity School.

In Massachusetts Senate PPP Poll, Read the Numbers — Not the Memo

May 20, 2013

Another public poll, this one from Public Policy Polling, shows a tight race for Senate in Massachusetts. But more interesting is what the Democratic firm does not discuss in its very brief memo about the June 25 special election.

Will Republicans Screw Up Again? Some Are Already Overreaching

May 20, 2013

Some Republicans are so excited at the thought of multiple controversies dogging the White House over the next few months (or longer) that they are already foaming at the mouth.

Will Obama Controversies Affect Democratic Recruitment?

May 18, 2013

There is no doubt that the three major controversies on which President Barack Obama finds his administration on the defensive — Benghazi, the IRS targeting of conservatives and the seizure of AP phone records — have changed the political narrative of the day. Instead of mobilizing all of his resources to promote his agenda, the president and administration officials are having to spend time and energy answering and rebutting Republican charges.

Obama's New Political Reality Is Bad News for Dems in 2014

May 14, 2013

Forget background checks and gun control, divisions within the GOP on immigration, and Republican intransigence on negotiating a budget deal with the president. The current triple play of Benghazi, the IRS and now the Justice Department’s seizure of journalists’ phone records has the potential to be a political game changer for 2014.

A GOP Senate Switch in South Dakota Looks More Likely

May 14, 2013

Former Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s announcement that she is passing on a Senate race in 2014, combined with secondhand reports that U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson (son of retiring South Dakota Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson) has also decided against a Senate bid, must have put big smiles on the faces of Republican strategists.

Alaska Senate Poll: Far, Far Less Than Meets the Eye

May 13, 2013

A Harper Polling survey conducted for the Tea Party Leadership Fund, an obscure conservative group that has supported Georgia Republican Rep. Paul Broun and Kentucky GOP Sen. Rand Paul, is one of those polls probably meant for fundraising and little else.

Ted Cruz for President? Not So Fast | Rothenberg

May 13, 2013

When a former GOP governor asked me the other day whether he would see another Republican elected to the White House in his lifetime, I asked him exactly how old he was.

Massachusetts Senate Special-Election Race Still Looks Tight

May 12, 2013

A new poll conducted for Republican Gabriel Gomez’s campaign shows Gomez trailing Democratic Rep. Edward J. Markey by just 3 points.

Obama Administration Heading for a Tough Few Weeks

May 11, 2013

Maybe it’s because two-term presidents suffer from hubris, or merely that after an administration has been in office for years, it inevitably makes mistakes (and too often tries to cover them up). But recent news reports ought to make Democrats at least a little nervous about the next few months and even 2014.

Partisanship Ruled in South Carolina Special Election

May 8, 2013

Mark Sanford’s victory in the special election in South Carolina’s 1st District tell us little new about the 2014 elections. But it does serve as a reminder about one important factor in American politics that shouldn’t be ignored when the midterms roll around: partisanship.

Virginia Governor Poll: Not Meaningless, but Not Important

May 7, 2013

The recent Washington Post poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race showed Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli leading former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe by 5 points among registered voters (46 percent to 41 percent) and by 10 points among likely voters (51 percent to 41 percent).

Ranking Potential Flips for 2014 House Rematches

May 6, 2013

It’s looking as if we may see more than a dozen House race rematches in 2014. While some of them are likely to have the same outcomes as in 2012, others could easily flip party control. Here is my initial list of potential rematch flips, with the first contests listed more likely to flip and the last ones less likely.

History Lessons and the 2014 Midterms

May 3, 2013

Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics.com joins the growing chorus of political handicappers who have been arguing that we aren’t likely to see a partisan wave next cycle. Trende’s analysis, which also addresses the “six-year itch,” is spot on (as it usually is).

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