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Stuart Rothenberg

Bio:

Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan, nonideological political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns. He is also a twice-a-week columnist for Roll Call. His column covers campaigns, elections, presidential politics and current political developments.

He holds a B.A. from Colby College (Waterville, Maine) and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Connecticut. He has taught at Bucknell University (Lewisburg, Pennsylvania) and at the Catholic University of America (Washington, D.C.).

A frequent soundbite, Stu has appeared on Meet the Press, This Week, Face the Nation, the NewsHour, Nightline and many other television programs. He is often quoted in the nation's major media, and his op-eds have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and other newspapers.

Stu served during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles as an analyst for the NewsHour on PBS. During the 2006 cycle, he was a political analyst for CBS News. Prior to that, he was a political analyst for CNN for over a decade, including election nights from 1992 through 2004. He has also done on-air analysis for the Voice of America.

He is married, has two children and lives in Potomac, Md.

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Stories by Stuart Rothenberg:

Cook's Partisan Voting Index and the Decline of the Swing District

April 12, 2013

Every political reporter, campaign professional and political junkie should read Charlie Cook’s most recent National Journal column on the decline of swing congressional districts and the rise of partisanship. (I am certain some credit for the analysis also goes to David Wasserman over at the Cook Political Report.)

Five Takeaways From the New NBC/WSJ Poll

April 11, 2013

A few observations on the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll:

Scott Brown’s Potentially Silly Adventure

April 10, 2013

Last week, I wrote a short item about reports that former Massachusetts GOP Sen. Scott P. Brown was not ruling out a run for the Senate in 2014— in New Hampshire.

Can Allyson Schwartz Make It to Harrisburg?

April 10, 2013

Philadelphia Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz recently confirmed what everyone had already suspected: She is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor in Pennsylvania.

Countdown to 2014: Who's Running Scared?

April 9, 2013

Who’sthe most vulnerable senator seeking re-election next year? It’s no longer Chamblis, Rockefeller or Tim Johnson. And take Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell off the short list. Let’s run down the list of Democrats running in the swing states.

Rothenberg: Most Vulnerable of '14? Pryor by a Hair

April 8, 2013

Who is the most vulnerable senator seeking re-election next year?

Why Scott Brown Running in N.H. Is a Really, Really Bad Idea

April 5, 2013

Multiple media outlets are reporting that former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown, a Republican, hasn’t ruled out a bid for the Senate next year in New Hampshire.

New Jobs Numbers Raise Economic — and Political — Questions

April 5, 2013

The jobs numbers just reported for March — an increase of only 88,000 jobs — are horrendous, especially coming after February’s strong job surge (236,000 new jobs revised up to 268,000).

Why Isn’t Maine’s Susan Collins Vulnerable?

April 3, 2013

On one level, Maine’s lone Republican in Congress, Sen. Susan Collins, looks like a defeat waiting to happen.

South Carolina 1st District Poll: It’s All About Context

April 2, 2013

The campaign of Elizabeth Colbert Busch, the Democratic nominee for the special election in South Carolina’s 1st District, released a poll Monday. As with all polls, context matters, so be careful before jumping to conclusions either way.

Democrats' Prospects in 2014 Are Worth an Honest Debate

April 1, 2013

Over the years, I’ve complained about the tone of our political discussions, including some of what supposedly passes for political analysis. Too much of it is merely political advocacy cloaked in pseudo-analysis, and it drives me nuts.

What State Political Trends Portend for the 2014 Midterms

March 29, 2013

Correction, 2:12 p.m. | There probably isn’t a better demonstration of the nation’s partisan political polarization than the makeup of the Senate. Only 17 states have split delegations, while 33 states have either two Republicans or two Democrats (or two senators who caucus with the same party, in the case of independents).

Not All State Offices Are Political Launching Pads

March 28, 2013

My colleague Nathan Gonzales has written a terrific piece on KentuckySecretaryof State Alison Lundergan Grimes, the young Democrat mentioned as a potential challenger to veteran GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell. He explains her election as Kentucky secretary of state and her family’s connection to the Clintons, among other things.

The Fat Lady Sings on Gun Control, 2013 Edition

March 27, 2013

Whether you are a staunch supporter of the National Rifle Association or an enthusiastic backer of the effort by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and California Sen. Dianne Feinstein for stronger gun control laws, it now should be clear who is winning — indeed, who has won — the latest skirmish in the gun control wars.

About That Terrible GOP Brand ...

March 25, 2013

I certainly agree with pollster Andrew Kohut’s overall assessment of the Republican Party’s image and positioning problems in his March 24 Washington Post piece. I, too, have written about the GOP’s problems.

Mixing Apples and Oranges in West Virginia

March 22, 2013

Hoping to hang on to retiring Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s open seat, Democratic strategists are passing the word that attorney and energy company executive Nick Preservati is looking closely at the 2014 Senate contest in West Virginia.

The GOP: A Party Increasingly at Odds With Itself

March 20, 2013

“I am not a member of anyorganizedparty — I am a Democrat,” humorist Will Rogers said many years ago. But if Rogers were alive today, he’d undoubtedly see his party as a model of organization and unity when compared to the GOP.

History May Tell Us Little About GOP's 2014 Senate Prospects

March 20, 2013

A recent National Journal item caught my attention. Entitled “Expanding the Map,” it began: “When Republicans gloat about the seven Democratic-held, red-state Senate seats up in 2014, Democrats can note that only six of their incumbents have lost since the 1990s.”

Democrats Need to Expand House Playing Field

March 19, 2013

Can Democrats win back the House in 2014? Not unless a strong recruiting cycle and national events give them a big boost. My column in Tuesday’s Roll Call looks at the top Democratic opportunities around the country — district by district — and finds the party well short of the three to four dozen serious targets that it needs. (For Rothenberg Political Report House ratings, click here.)

Rothenberg: Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment

March 18, 2013

Three weeks ago, I discussed whether the House is likely to flip control next year by looking at historical trends and “big picture” questions. Those trends show that the Democrats’ task is a challenging one.

Committee Recruitment, Candidate Programs Are All the Rage

March 15, 2013

My colleague Jessica Taylor notes in a new piece on the Rothenberg Political Report that the House campaign committees are relying more and more on “recruitment programs” and “candidate programs” to woo candidates into races, to make sure that they develop quality campaigns and to generate local and national media attention to enable them to raise money. Her piece, which looks at recent “win-loss” records for the past couple of cycles, is worth reading.

Getting to Know the Massachusetts GOP Senate Hopefuls (VIDEO)

March 12, 2013

Two of the Republican Senate hopefuls in Massachusetts are out with new campaign videos.Do yourself a favor and give them a look.

Monthly Party Fundraising Reports Don’t Tell the Whole Story

March 12, 2013

Every election cycle the party campaign committees, and many in the national media, make a big deal about party fundraising.

Looking to 2016: Is It Still Either Bush or Rubio?

March 11, 2013

As former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush continues to do nothing to end speculation that he might run for president in 2016, his Florida ally, Sen. Marco Rubio, twists in the wind.

Rothenberg: Why I Rate Michigan's Senate Seat As 'Safe' for Democrats

March 11, 2013

Moments after the Rothenberg Political Report reiterated its “Safe” rating of the now open Michigan Senate race, I started hearing complaints. Some of the questions raised were reasonable — so reasonable that I thought I’d use this space to explain why my colleagues and I decided not to move the race immediately to a more competitive category.

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