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Stuart Rothenberg


Stuart Rothenberg is editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan, nonideological political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns. He is also a twice-a-week columnist for Roll Call. His column covers campaigns, elections, presidential politics and current political developments.

He holds a B.A. from Colby College (Waterville, Maine) and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Connecticut. He has taught at Bucknell University (Lewisburg, Pennsylvania) and at the Catholic University of America (Washington, D.C.).

A frequent soundbite, Stu has appeared on Meet the Press, This Week, Face the Nation, the NewsHour, Nightline and many other television programs. He is often quoted in the nation's major media, and his op-eds have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and other newspapers.

Stu served during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles as an analyst for the NewsHour on PBS. During the 2006 cycle, he was a political analyst for CBS News. Prior to that, he was a political analyst for CNN for over a decade, including election nights from 1992 through 2004. He has also done on-air analysis for the Voice of America.

He is married, has two children and lives in Potomac, Md.

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Stories by Stuart Rothenberg:

Keep Your Eye on the Dow

Aug. 28, 2013

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up just short of 13 percent over the past year, it has lost almost 850 points since it hit its 52-week high of 15,658.43 on Aug. 2. With the Dow closing today at 14,824.51, that’s a drop of only 5.3 percent.

When Calling Something 'Politics' Is Mere Politics Itself

Aug. 27, 2013

Last week, CBS News veteran correspondent Mark Knoller tweeted that “Pres Obama says he’ll do ‘whatever it takes’ to get Congress, esp GOP, ‘to think less about politics and party’ & do what’s good for US.”

A Final Comment on Twitter and Election Forecasting

Aug. 16, 2013

I shouldn’t be disappointed with MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown,” one of the few reasonable political shows not airing on Sunday morning. But the show did a segment with Indiana University sociologist Fabio Rojas, who recently wrote a Washington Post opinion piece on how Twitter can predict an election.

Twitter Can't Yet Predict Elections

Aug. 14, 2013

The folks over at the Washington Post must have needed copy desperately for Monday’s opinion page if they were willing to publish a piece titled, “How Twitter can help predict an election.”

No, Really: It's Still Too Early to Judge Senate Races

Aug. 13, 2013

Just a little more than two years ago, that is how I began my assessment of the Senate battlefield in the Aug. 1, 2011, edition of the Rothenberg Political Report ($).

Incumbent Primary Challengers: Some Promising, Others Premature

Aug. 5, 2013

The 2014 primary season has begun with high-profile Democratic Senate primaries in Massachusetts and New Jersey. But they’re the tip of the iceberg in what promises to be a cycle of competitive, and possibly nasty, primaries in both parties.

Oy Vey. The Summer of Jews Behaving Badly

July 30, 2013

It has been a bad couple of weeks for my people.

Georgia Senate: Maybe, Potentially, Possibly … but Not Yet

July 29, 2013

The recent entry of Michelle Nunn into the Georgia Senate race is good news for national and state Democrats who hope to swipe a normally Republican Senate seat in the Deep South.

As Portland (Maine) Goes, So Goes ... the Nation?

July 23, 2013

For decades, Portland, Maine, the state’s largest city (population 66,000), has been more liberal and more Democratic than the rest of the Pine Tree State. But it wasn’t always the magnet for foodies or the home of upscale boutiques that attract a more affluent crowd.

Montana Senate Rating: Move or Reaffirm?

July 15, 2013

Since Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., announced he would not seek re-election in late April, we have rated the Montana Senate race as a Pure Tossup — a reflection of our uncertainty about the Democratic candidacy of former Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

Despite Primary, Rounds Remains Favorite in South Dakota

July 10, 2013

State Sen. Larry Rhoden’s formal entry today into the South Dakota GOP Senate race doesn’t fundamentally change the Republican contest. Former Gov. Mike Rounds remains the party’s favorite for the nomination and for the general election.

Rating Alison Lundergan Grimes’ Chances in Kentucky

July 8, 2013

Does the candidacy of Kentucky Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, who is challenging Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, change McConnell’s re-election prospects? The answer depends on whether you think she will be 2014’s version of Linda Lingle or Heidi Heitkamp.

Texas Governor: Perry Out, but ...

July 8, 2013

Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s decision not to seek another term does not change the partisan outlook for the 2014 Texas gubernatorial race.

It’s Uphill All the Way for Social Conservatives

July 1, 2013

Although the seemingly unstoppable march of cultural liberalism took pause during the years of Ronald Reagan and even into the 1990s, it is back on track. Liberals will applaud it and conservatives will dread it, but it is silly to deny its strength.

Gomez-Sanford Comparison on Obamacare Fails the Smell Test

June 27, 2013

You only need to look at the first paragraph of an “opinion” piece on Roll Call’s website to see that it wasn’t worthy of being posted on our website -- or anyone’s. I’m not even going to include a link because I don’t want anyone to read it. (Editor’s Note: Here’s the link.)

Is the Senate More Volatile Than the House in 2014?

June 24, 2013

Next year, voters will go to the polls to elect 435 House members and 35 United States senators, but it seems quite possible that there will be more net change in the Senate than in the House.

A Good Test of Exactly How Screwed Up Washington Is

June 19, 2013

Once upon a time, on a very different planet and in a very different country, the farm bill was not among the more controversial things that Congress did.

Was the Massachusetts Senate Special Ever a Tossup?

June 18, 2013

Minutes after Gabriel Gomez was declared the winner of his party’s special primary on the evening of April 30, I tweeted that Gomez’s victory assured that the Massachusetts Senate special election would be “interesting.” And it has been.

Why Emasculating the Speaker Is Rarely a Good Idea

June 13, 2013

They’re at it again.

When the Nation Has the Blahs ...

June 10, 2013

Is the nation suffering from a national case of hypochondria, or are Americans rightly worried about the country’s future?

National Democrats Buy Airtime in Massachusetts Senate Special Election

June 6, 2013

Republican strategists who monitor media activity in Massachusetts say the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has purchased TV time, starting tomorrow, to help Rep. Edward J. Markey in the special election for Senate.

Pollster Breaches Thin Line in LA Mayoral Campaign

June 5, 2013

Politics is a rough-and-tumble business, with campaigns bringing whatever resources they can to the table. But are there limits to what consultants, particularly pollsters, should do for their clients?

Two Democratic House Challengers Worth Watching

June 3, 2013

Democratic prospects of taking back the House in 2014 may be remote, but two Democratic congressional challengers I interviewed recently have the potential to knock off GOP incumbents next year. At the very least, their races are worth watching.

New Jersey Senate Remains Safe for Democrats in Long Term

June 3, 2013

For the first time in more than 30 years, there will likely be a Republican senator from New Jersey.

The Bachmann District: When a Retirement Changes Everything

May 30, 2013

That’s the next to the last paragraph in a very fine story written by Roll Call political reporter Emily Cahn about GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann’s retirement from Minnesota’s 6th District.

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